Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements
We examine the importance of exchange rate and money supply movements for the macroeconomic outcome of fiscal contractions and find: (i) contractions associated with a favorable macroeconomic outcome have been preceded by significantly higher real depreciations as compared to contractions associated with a less favorable macroeconomic outcome and (ii) contractions preceded by real depreciations improve expectations about future income and generate higher private consumption growth. We discuss policy implications for countries both outside and inside the EMU. Copyright 2002 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 104 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9442|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0347-0520|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996.
"Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,"
IMF Working Papers
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," NBER Working Papers 5730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, September.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993.
"Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
- Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," CEPR Discussion Papers 599, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giuseppe Bertola & Allan Drazen, 1991. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," NBER Working Papers 3844, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bertola, G. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Trigger Pointsand Budget Cuts ; Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," Papers 26-91, Tel Aviv.
- Sutherland, Alan, 1997.
"Fiscal crises and aggregate demand: can high public debt reverse the effects of fiscal policy?,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 147-162, August.
- Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alan Sutherland, "undated". "Fiscal Crises and Aggregate Demand: Can High Public Debt Reverse the Effects of Fiscal Policy?," Discussion Papers 95/17, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
- Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi & Pierpaolo Benigno, "undated".
"Managing the Public Debt in Fiscal Stabilizations: the Evidence,"
118, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Alessandro Missale & Francesco Giavazzi & Pierpaolo Benigno, 1997. "Managing the Public Debt in Fiscal Stabilizations: The Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985.
"Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
- Zaghini, A., 1999.
"The Economic Policy of Fiscal Consolidations: The European Experience,"
355, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Andrea Zaghini, 1999. "The economyc policy of fiscal consolidations: The european experience," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 355, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Bradley, John & Whelan, Karl, 1997. "The Irish expansionary fiscal contraction: A tale from one small European economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 175-201, April.
- U. Michael Bergman & Michael M. Hutchison, "undated". "The 'German View', Fiscal Consolidation and Consumption Booms: Empirical Evidence from Denmark," EPRU Working Paper Series 96-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Hjelm, Göran, 1999. "The Effects of Fiscal Contractions: A Circumstantial Approach," Working Papers 1999:009, Lund University, Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:104:y:2002:i:3:p:423-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.