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Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition

  • Fehr, Hans

The aim of this paper is to quantify the welfare effects of some currently discussed pension reform proposals in Germany. The analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for intra-generational heterogeneity, rising life expectancy and declining fertility. Given a baseline path of the economy under the existing unfunded pension system, the model calculates the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various pension reform measures aimed at reducing the level of the future unfunded pension system. Simulations reveal that pension reforms cannot be evaluated solely in terms of inter- and intra-generational equity. Substantial efficiency gains or losses might arise if the linkage between contributions and benefits is improved or weakened. Copyright 2000 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 102 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 419-43

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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:3:p:419-43
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  1. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  3. Steigum, E.Jr., 1992. "Accounting for Long-Run Effects of Fiscal Policy by Means of Computable Overlapping Generations Models," Papers 05-92, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration-.
  4. D. Peter Broer, & Jukka Lassila, (ed.), . "Pension Policies and Public Debt in Dynamic CGE Models," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 23, March-Apr.
  5. Fehr, Hans, 1998. "Privatization of public pensions in Germany: Who gains and how much?," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 148, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  6. Steven A. Sass & Robert K. Triest, 1997. "Social Security reform: links to saving, investment and growth," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 41(Jun).
  7. Schnabel, Reinhold, 1997. "Rates of Return of the German Pay-As-You-Go Pension System," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-56, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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