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Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future

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  • Hatton, Timothy J
  • Williamson, Jeffrey G

Abstract

The paper uses analysis of the mass emigration from poor Europe in the late nineteenth century to project the future mass emigration potential from Africa, especially to the economically more mature Mediterranean economies. The economic and demographic fundamentals driving both experiences are likely to be the same, but their magnitudes are likely to be far bigger in the African case over the next few decades. Efforts to restrict the migration and to seal porous borders may be partially successful; but, if so, they are certain to create unpleasant side-effects. European restrictions will create a greater share of illegals and thus greater absorption problems in recipient nations: European restrictions will create more poverty in African sending regions. And European restrictions will create considerable diplomatic problems between the two regions. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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  • Hatton, Timothy J & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2002. "Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 556-573, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:3:p:556-73
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Palmer & Mariola Pytlikova, 2013. "Labor Market Laws and Intra-European Migration: The Role of the State in Shaping Destination Choices," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2013015, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
    2. Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2006. "Poverty Traps, Distance and Diversity: The Migration Connection," CEPR Discussion Papers 5891, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2010. "The impact of the credit crisis on poor developing countries: Growth, worker remittances, accumulation and migration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1230-1245, September.
    4. Dibeh, Ghassan & Fakih, Ali & Marrouch, Walid, 2017. "Decision to Emigrate Amongst the Youth in Lebanon," IZA Discussion Papers 10493, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Thomas Ziesemer, 2011. "Growth with endogenous migration hump and the multiple, dynamically interacting effects of aid in poor developing countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4865-4878.
    6. Naude, Wim, 2008. "Conflict, Disasters, and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 085, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa's demographic dividend for its future growth and poverty reduction ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7134, The World Bank.
    8. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    9. Edda Claus & Iris Claus & Michael Dörsam, 2010. "The Effects of Taxation on Migration: Some Evidence for the ASEAN and APEC Economies," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2010n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 2007. "Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-051/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    11. Amelie F. Constant & Bienvenue N. Tien, 2009. "Brainy Africans to Fortress Europe: For Money or Colonial Vestiges?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 965, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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