Germany's Economic Unification: An Assessment after Ten Years
The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out-of-sample forecasts based on two-stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 10 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0965-7576|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0965-7576|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:att:wimass:9623 is not listed on IDEAS
- Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1999.
"EU Enlargement, Migration and Lessons from German Unification,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "EU Enlargement, Migration, and Lessons from German Unification," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(3), pages 299-314, 08.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 1999. "EU Enlargement, Migration, and Lessons from German Unification," CESifo Working Paper Series 182, CESifo Group Munich.
- Franz, Wolfgang & Steiner, Viktor, 1999.
"Wages in the East German transition process: facts and explanations,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
99-40, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Wolfgang Franz & Viktor Steiner, 2000. "Wages in the East German Transition Process: Facts and Explanations," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(3), pages 241-269, 08.
- Albert Müller, 2000. "Aufholprozess der ostdeutschen Wirtschaft stagniert," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(3), pages 9-16, 02.
- Henning Klodt, 1999. "Industrial Policy and the East German Productivity Puzzle," Kiel Working Papers 943, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Wolfgang Keller, 1997.
"From Socialist Showcase to Mezzogiorno? Lessons on the Role of Technical Change from East Germany's Post-World War II Growth Performance,"
NBER Working Papers
6079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Keller, Wolfgang, 2000. "From socialist showcase to Mezzogiorno? Lessons on the role of technical change from East Germany's post-World War II growth performance," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 485-514, December.
- Wolfgang Keller, 1997. "From Socialist Showcase to Mezzogiorno? Lessons on the Role of Technical Change from East Germany's Post-World War II Growth Performance," Development and Comp Systems 9707002, EconWPA.
- Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999.
"Höhere Rentenanpassung in Ostdeutschland erforderlich ?,"
ifo Dresden berichtet,
Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(04), pages 45-51, October.
- Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Höhere Rentenanpassung in Ostdeutschland erforderlich?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(19), pages 20-24, October.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 1995. "Staggering along: wages policy and investment support in East Germany," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(4), pages 403-426, December.
- Boltho, Andrea & Carlin, Wendy & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 1997.
"Will East Germany Become a New Mezzogiorno?,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 241-264, June.
- Karl-Heinz Paque, 1999. "Zehn Jahre Aufbau Ost: eine Zwischenbilanz," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(34), pages 13-19, 02.
- George A. Akerlof & Andrew K. Rose & Janet L. Yellen & Helga Hessenius, 1991. "East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 1-106.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:1:p:113-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.