Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal
This paper presents and implements statistical tests of stock-market forecastability and volatility that are immune from the severe statistical problems of earlier tests. It finds that although the null hypothesis of market efficiency is rejected, the rejections are only marginal. The paper also shows how volatility tests and recent regression tests are closely related, and demonstrates that when finite sample biases are taken into account, regression tests also fail to provide strong evidence of violations of the conventional valuation model. Copyright 1991 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 58 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6527|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0034-6527|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Shiller & Pierre Perron, 1985.
"Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
- Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1986.
" Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 831-42, September.
- Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1986. "Asset Price Volatility, Bubbles, and Process Switching," NBER Working Papers 1867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986.
"Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June.
- Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Ackley, Gardner, 1983. "Commodities and Capital: Prices and Quantities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 1-16, March.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985.
" An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985. "An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 758, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May.
- West, Kenneth D, 1988.
"Dividend Innovations and Stock Price Volatility,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(1), pages 37-61, January.
- West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Specification Test for Speculative Bubbles,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 553-80, August.
- Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-61, January.
- Merton, Robert C., 1985. "On the current state of the stock market rationality hypothesis," Working papers 1717-85., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Kim, M.J. & Nelson, C.R. & Startz, R., 1988.
"Mean Reversion In Stock Prices? A Reappraisal Of Empirical Evidence,"
88-15, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Kim, M.J. & Nelson, C.R. & Startz, R., 1988. "Mean Reversion In Stock Prices? A Reappraisal Of Empirical Evidence," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 88-15, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986.
"Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
781R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 1987.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985. "Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Bias in Tests of Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 743, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Scott, Louis O, 1985. "The Present Value Model of Stock Prices: Regression Tests and Monte Carlo Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 599-605, November.
- Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:3:p:455-77. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.