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The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience

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  • Mumtaz Hussain
  • Andrew Berg
  • Shekhar Aiyar

Abstract

The authors investigate the macroeconomic challenges created by a surge in aid inflows. They develop an analytical framework for examining possible policy responses to increased aid, in terms of absorption and spending of aid-where the central bank controls absorption, through monetary policy and the sale of foreign exchange, and where the fiscal authority controls spending. Different combinations of absorption and spending lead to different macroeconomic consequences. Evidence from five countries that recently experienced an aid surge (Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Uganda) shows no support for aid-related real exchange rate appreciation in these countries, but it does indicate that the fear of Dutch disease played an important part in the policy reaction to aid surges. Fiscal and monetary authorities should coordinate their responses to an aid surge, because an uncoordinated response-typically when the fiscal authority wants to spend aid while the central bank wants to avoid exchange rate appreciation-can have serious negative macroeconomic consequences. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Mumtaz Hussain & Andrew Berg & Shekhar Aiyar, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 491-509, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:491-509
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    1. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie & Catherine Pattillo, 2009. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 464-490.
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    8. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    9. Martin Brownbridge & Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, 2007. "Aid and Fiscal Deficits: Lessons from Uganda on the Implications for Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Sustainability," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 193-213, March.
    10. Alexander Pivovarsky & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Erwin H Tiongson, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Revenue Response; Does the Composition of Aid Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/176, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Andrew Berg & Mumtaz Hussain & Shaun K. Roache & Amber A Mahone & Tokhir N Mirzoev & Shekhar Aiyar, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid; Lessons from Recent Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 253, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 1034-1043.
    2. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Aid and Vulnerability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 88, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    3. Temple, Jonathan & Van de Sijpe, Nicolas, 2017. "Foreign aid and domestic absorption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 431-443.
    4. Fischer, A.M., 2017. "Dilemmas of externally financing domestic expenditures: Rethinking the political economy of aid and social protection through the monetary transformation dilemma," ISS Working Papers - General Series 629, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    5. Jarotschkin, Alexandra & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Aid, disbursement delays, and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6501, The World Bank.
    6. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 1034-1043.
    7. Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers & Karel Verbeke, 2015. "What to do after the clean slate? Post-relief public debt sustainability and management," BeFinD Working Papers 0103, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    8. Fischer, A.M., 2016. "Aid and the symbiosis of global redistribution and development: Comparative historical lessons from two icons of development studies," ISS Working Papers - General Series 618, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    9. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2011. "Can reserve additions in mature crude oil provinces attenuate peak oil?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5755-5764.
    10. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    11. Eric Gabin Kilama, 2014. "Recipients aid absorption in the new development cooperation landscape," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, pages 1929-1944.
    12. Jean-Louis COMBES & Patrick PLANE & Tidiane KINDA, 2010. "Capital Flows and their Impact on the Real Effective Exchange Rate," Working Papers 201032, CERDI.
    13. Kilama, Eric Gabin, 2016. "The influence of China and emerging donors aid allocation: A recipient perspective," China Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 76-91.
    14. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2015. "On The Trade-Off Between Welfare and Peace: Evidence from West African Countries Using a Quantile Regression," MPRA Paper 79776, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    15. Chance Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Capital Inflows in Form of Foreign Aid in Malawi," Working Papers 201232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    16. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: The Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data," Working Paper Series 0910, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    17. Bwire, Thomas & Lloyd, Tim & Morrissey, Oliver, 2013. "A Timeseries Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Aid on Central Government's Fiscal Budget in Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Pedro M G Martins, "undated". "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Discussion Papers 10/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    19. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
    20. Zoundi, Zakaria, 2015. "The Absorption and Spending Capacity of Aid in the Economic Community of West African States," MPRA Paper 66736, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Aug 2015.
    21. Pedro M G Martins, "undated". "Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: A Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    22. repec:nam:befdwp:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Bwire, Thomas & Lloyd, Tim & Morrissey, Oliver, 2013. "Foreign Aid, Public Sector and Private Consumption: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Approach," WIDER Working Paper Series 094, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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