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Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?

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  • Paul Collier
  • Benedikt Goderis

Abstract

The authors investigate the role of aid in mitigating the adverse effects of commodity export price shocks on growth in commodity-dependent countries. Using a large cross-country dataset, they find that negative shocks matter for short-term growth, while the ex ante risk of shocks does not seem to matter. They also find that both the level of aid and the flexibility of the exchange rate substantially lower the adverse growth effect of shocks. While the mitigating effect of aid is significant in both countries with pegs and countries with floats, the effect seems to be smaller for the latter, suggesting that aid and exchange rate flexibility are partly substitutes. They investigate whether aid has historically been targeted at shock-prone countries, but find no evidence that this is the case. This suggests that donors could increase aid effectiveness by redirecting aid toward countries with a high incidence of commodity export price shocks. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Does Aid Mitigate External Shocks?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 429-451, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:429-451
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaumont, Patrick & Guillaumont Jeanneney, Sylviane & Wagner, Laurent, 2017. "How to Take into Account Vulnerability in Aid Allocation Criteria and Lack of Human Capital as Well: Improving the Performance Based Allocation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 27-40.
    2. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural policies for shock-prone developing countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 703-726, October.
    3. Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Aid Effectiveness for Poverty Reduction: Lessons from Cross‑country Analyses, with a Special Focus on Vulnerable Countries," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 22(HS01), pages 217-261.
    4. Sergio Tezanos Vázquez, 2010. "Ayuda y crecimiento: una relación en disputa," Documentos de trabajo sobre cooperación y desarrollo 201001, Cátedra de Cooperación Internacional y con Iberoamérica (COIBA), Universidad de Cantabria.
    5. Sergio Tezanos Vázquez, 2009. "Geopolítica de la ayuda ¿Cómo optimizar el impacto de la ayuda sobre el crecimiento?," Documentos de trabajo sobre cooperación y desarrollo 200903, Cátedra de Cooperación Internacional y con Iberoamérica (COIBA), Universidad de Cantabria.
    6. Thierry Kangoye, 2008. "Instability from trade and democracy: the long-run effect of aid," Post-Print hal-00331902, HAL.
    7. Patrick Guillaumont & Laurent Wagner, 2012. "Aid and Growth Accelerations: Vulnerability Matters," Post-Print halshs-00692388, HAL.
    8. Chen, Hong & Singh, Baljeet, 2016. "Official Development Assistance, Public Investment and Economic Growth in Asia and the Pacific," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 73-96.
    9. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Era Dabla-Norris & Camelia Minoiu & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2010. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Shocks, and Development Aid; New Evidence," IMF Working Papers 10/240, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Laurent Wagner, 2014. "Identifying thresholds in aid effectiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 150(3), pages 619-638, August.
    12. repec:sdo:regaec:v:26:y:2017:i:2_9 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Thierry Somlawende KANGOYE, 2008. "On the potential of foreign aid to protect democracy against instability from trade," Working Papers 200821, CERDI.
    14. Anthony J. Venables, 2010. "Economic geography and African development," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 469-483, August.
    15. Dabla-Norris, Era & Minoiu, Camelia & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2015. "Business Cycle Fluctuations, Large Macroeconomic Shocks, and Development Aid," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 44-61.
    16. Guillaumont, Patrick & McGillivray, Mark & Wagner, Laurent, 2017. "Performance Assessment, Vulnerability, Human Capital, and the Allocation of Aid Among Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-26.
    17. Sergio Tezanos Vázquez & Rogelio Madrueño Aguilar & Marta Guijarro Garví, 2009. "Impacto de la ayuda sobre el crecimiento económico. El caso de América Latina y el Caribe," Documentos de trabajo sobre cooperación y desarrollo 200904, Cátedra de Cooperación Internacional y con Iberoamérica (COIBA), Universidad de Cantabria.
    18. Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2011. "Assessing the impact of the special support measures for least developed countries: an analytical frame work and some preliminary results," Working Papers P17, FERDI.
    19. Lars M. Johansson & Jan Pettersson, 2008. "Tied Aid, Trade-Facilitating Aid or Trade-Diverting Aid?," DEGIT Conference Papers c013_008, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    20. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2009. "Structural policies for shock-prone developing countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 703-726, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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