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Hat die Geldmenge ausgedient?

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  • Jürgen von Hagen

Abstract

This article reconsiders the role of money in three dimensions of monetary policy: an empirical dimension concerning the link between money and macro-economic target variables, a theoretical dimension concerning the role of monetary aggregates in models of monetary policy, and a strategic dimension, concerning the use of monetary aggregate in the design and communication of monetary policy strategies. We review recent research and present empirical evidence for the euro area and other countries. We show that money growth is a reliable indicator of euro-area inflation in the medium and long run. In contrast, the usefulness of money to predict short-run inflation is small in times when inflation and money growth are both low and relatively stable. We show that, although the presentation of models of monetary macro-economics has changed, the role of money is still the same within these models. The strategic role of money changes over time: money moves to the foreground, when inflation is too high, and it stays in the background when inflation is low. Since there is little reason to believe that inflation will always be low in the euro area, we expect that money will regain importance in the ECB's monetary policy strategy sooner or later. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik und Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2004

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Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik.

Volume (Year): 5 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 423-453

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Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:5:y:2004:i:4:p:423-453
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  1. Coenen, Guenter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2003. "Data Uncertainty and the Role of Money as an Information Variable for Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/07, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hayo, Bernd, 1998. "Estimating a European demand for money," ZEI Working Papers B 05-1998, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  4. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
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  8. Nicoletti-Altimari, Sergio, 2001. "Does money lead inflation in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0063, European Central Bank.
  9. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 32-43.
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  11. Bernd Hayo, 1998. "Money-Output Granger Causality Revisited: An Empirical Analysis of EU Countries," Macroeconomics 9809009, EconWPA.
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  13. Tanner, J. Ernest, 1993. "Did monetarism die in the 1980s?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 213-229.
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  18. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Future of Monetary Aggregates in Monetary Policy Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 3897, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  25. Rolnick, Arthur J & Weber, Warren E, 1997. "Money, Inflation, and Output under Fiat and Commodity Standards," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1308-21, December.
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Cited by:

  1. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2005. "Does Money Matter for Inflation in the Euro Area?," Working papers 2005/09, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  2. Hillinger, Claude & Süssmuth, Bernd, 2008. "The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!," Discussion Papers in Economics 6987, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  3. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:103:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Nobelpreis für Wirtschaftswissenschaften 2004 an Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 248/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.

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