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Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?

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  • Shiu-Sheng Chen
  • Charles Engel

Abstract

Recently, Jean Imbs and colleagues have claimed that much of the purchasing power parity puzzle can be explained by 'aggregation bias'. This paper re-examines aggregation bias. It clarifies the meaning of aggregation bias and its applicability to the PPP puzzle; demonstrates that the size of the 'bias' is much smaller than suggested if explosive roots in the simulations are ruled out; and shows that the presence of non-persistent measurement error data can make price series appear less persistent than they are. After correcting for small-sample bias, half-life estimates indicate that heterogeneity and aggregation bias do not help to solve the PPP puzzle. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2005. "Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 49-72, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:1:p:49-72
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
    2. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    3. So, Beong Soo & Shin, Dong Wan, 1999. "Recursive mean adjustment in time-series inferences," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 65-73, May.
    4. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Local-currency pricing and the choice of exchange-rate regime," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1449-1472, August.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
    6. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
    7. Paul Cashin & C. John McDermott, 2003. "An Unbiased Appraisal of Purchasing Power Parity," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 1-1.
    8. Christian Murray & David Papell, 2005. "The purchasing power parity puzzle is worse than you think," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 783-790, October.
    9. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Exactly Median-Unbiased Estimation of First Order Autoregressive/Unit Root Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 139-165, January.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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