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Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Re-examination of the Time Series Relationship between Teenage Employment and Minimum Wages in the United States

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  • Bazen, Stephen
  • Marimoutou, Velayoudom

Abstract

The work of Card and Krueger has cast doubt on the nature of the relationship between the minimum wage and teenage employment in the United States. The earlier "consensus" finding of a small but statistically significant negative effect was based on time series data whereas Card and Krueger's findings are based mainly on cross section data. In this article, we re-examine the time series relationship between minimum wage and teenage employment. We find that previous models break down due to their inability to capture changes in the trend, cyclical and seasonal components of teenage employment. We propose an alternative approach in which these components are treated as stochastic components and which contains the traditional, deterministic approach as a special case. The model when estimated up to 1979 accurately predicts what happens to teenage employment subsequently, when the minimum wage was frozen after 1981 and then increased quite substantially in the early 1990s. Moreover, we find that there is a significant, negative effect of the minimum wage on teenage employment and its size has hardly changed during the 1980s and early 1990s. Copyright 2002 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Bazen, Stephen & Marimoutou, Velayoudom, 2002. " Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Re-examination of the Time Series Relationship between Teenage Employment and Minimum Wages in the United States," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(0), pages 699-725, Supplemen.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:64:y:2002:i:0:p:699-725
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    Cited by:

    1. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2006. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Review of Evidence from the New Minimum Wage Research," NBER Working Papers 12663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Pandelis Mitsis, 2012. "Effects of minimum wages on total employment where the legislative coverage is limited: Evidence from Cyprus time series data," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 05-2012, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    3. Wang‐Sheng Lee & Sandy Suardi, 2011. "Minimum Wages and Employment: Reconsidering the Use of a Time Series Approach as an Evaluation Tool," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 49(Supplemen), pages 376-401, July.
    4. Dale L. Belman & Paul Wolfson, 2010. "The Effect of Legislated Minimum Wage Increases on Employment and Hours: A Dynamic Analysis," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 24(1), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Christian Ragacs, 2003. "Mindestlöhne und Beschäftigung: Die empirische Evidenz," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 29(2), pages 215-246.
    6. Stephen Bazen & Velayoudom Marimoutou, 2000. "Looking for a Needle in a Haystack? A Structural Time Series Model of the Relationship Between Teenage Employment and Minimum Wages in the United States," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0495, Econometric Society.
    7. Bazen, Stephen & Le Gallo, Julie, 2009. "The state-federal dichotomy in the effects of minimum wages on teenage employment in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 267-269, December.
    8. Lundborg , Per & Skedinger, Per, 2014. "Minimum Wages and the Integration of Refugee Immigr ants," Working Paper Series 4/14, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    9. Margherita Comola & Luiz de Mello, 2009. "How Does Decentralised Minimum-Wage Setting Affect Unemployment and Informality?: The Case of Indonesia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 710, OECD Publishing.

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