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Innovational Outlier Unit Root Tests with an Endogenously Determined Break in Level

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  • Harvey, David I
  • Leybourne, Stephen J
  • Newbold, Paul

Abstract

We show that a standard unit root test that permits an endogenously determined break in level can generate spurious rejections in practically interesting sample sizes when a large break occurs under the null hypothesis. This problem, which occurs for breaks of the innovational outlier type, can be corrected through a simple modification of the test procedure. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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  • Harvey, David I & Leybourne, Stephen J & Newbold, Paul, 2001. " Innovational Outlier Unit Root Tests with an Endogenously Determined Break in Level," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(5), pages 559-575, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:5:p:559-75
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    Cited by:

    1. Kojo Menyah & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2012. "Wagner'S Law Revisited: A Note From South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 80(2), pages 200-208, June.
    2. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
    3. Josep Lluís Carrion-I-Silvestre & María Dolores Gadea, 2016. "Bounds, Breaks and Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 165-181, March.
    4. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2017. "Fractional Unit Root Tests Allowing for a Structural Change in Trend under Both the Null and Alternative Hypotheses," Econometrics, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, January.
    5. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
    6. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Identification of the true break date in innovational outlier unit root tests," IBES Diskussionsbeiträge 152, University of Duisburg-Essen, Institute of Business and Economic Studie (IBES).
    7. Sam Astill & David I. Harvey & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2013. "A bootstrap test for additive outliers in non-stationary time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 454-465, July.
    8. Popp, Stephan, 2007. "Modified seasonal unit root test with seasonal level shifts at unknown time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 111-117, November.
    9. Mendez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Seasonal Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in agricultural time series: Monthly exports and domestic supply in Argentina," MPRA Paper 63831, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2015.
    10. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
    11. Méndez Parra, Maximiliano, 2015. "Futures prices, trade and domestic supply of agricultural commodities," Economics PhD Theses 0115, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    12. Luis C. Nunes, 2004. "LM-Type tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in Trend," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 190, Econometric Society.
    13. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Seasonal unit root tests with seasonal mean shifts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 295-302, July.
    14. Michael Princ, 2016. "Structural Distress Index: Structural Break Analysis of the Czech and Polish Stock Markets," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(3), pages 125-137.

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