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A Note on the Power of Money-Output Causality Tests

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • Fujii, Eiji

Abstract

This study suggests that some empirical findings against money-output causality can be the consequence of ignoring autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) errors. Monte Carlo results confirm that ARCH effects drastically reduce the power of the standard causality test. The maximum likelihood approach allowing for ARCH effects, on the other hand, provides a good power performance. Using different specifications and sample period, Friedman and Kuttner (1993) and Thomas (1994) report limited evidence of money causing output. We detect significant ARCH effects in the models considered by these studies. Once ARCH effects are explicitly accounted for, we find that the monetary effect is significant though its magnitude is quite small. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & Fujii, Eiji, 2001. " A Note on the Power of Money-Output Causality Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 247-261, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:63:y:2001:i:2:p:247-61
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    Cited by:

    1. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2004. "Decomposing Granger Causality over the Spectrum," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-102-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Cheung, Yan-Leung & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Chris C., 2007. "East Asian equity markets, financial crises, and the Japanese currency," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 138-152, March.
    3. Cook, Steven, 2007. "On the relationship between mergers and economic activity: Evidence from an optimised hybrid method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(2), pages 628-634.
    4. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2009. "Does money still matter for U.S. output?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 143-146, March.
    5. Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2006. "Contagion and interdependence: measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Research Discussion Papers 15/2006, Bank of Finland.
    6. Li, Haiqi & Zhong, Wanling & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Generalized cross-spectral test for nonlinear Granger causality with applications to money–output and price–volume relations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 661-671.
    7. Jokipii, Terhi & Lucey, Brian, 2007. "Contagion and interdependence: Measuring CEE banking sector co-movements," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-96, March.
    8. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi & Jalolov, Mirzosharif, 2005. "Money-income causality revisited in EGARCH: Spillovers of monetary policy to Asia from the US," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 299-313, April.
    9. Kutan, Ali M. & Wyzan, Michael L., 2005. "Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996-2003: Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 242-255, June.

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