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Speculation, Heterogeneity and Learning: A Simulation Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics

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  • Marengo, Luigi
  • Tordjman, Helene

Abstract

This paper presents a model of a speculative determination of exchange rates. The authors' basic claim is that speculation is intrinsically a disequilibrium phenomenon, mainly because the imperfect rationality of economic agents engenders heterogeneity of their beliefs, representations, and 'models of the world.' They use classifiers systems and genetic algorithms to simulate the behavior of learning agents and study the aggregate results in terms of prices and volume of transaction. Simulated exchange rates exhibit some of the distinctive properties characterizing real series. Copyright 1996 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG

Suggested Citation

  • Marengo, Luigi & Tordjman, Helene, 1996. "Speculation, Heterogeneity and Learning: A Simulation Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 407-438.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:49:y:1996:i:3:p:407-38
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    Cited by:

    1. Devetag, M Giovanna, 1999. "From Utilities to Mental Models: A Critical Survey on Decision Rules and Cognition in Consumer Choice," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 289-351, June.
    2. Eric Ringhut & Stefan Kooths, 2003. "Modeling Expectations with GENEFER – an Artificial Intelligence Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1), pages 173-194, February.
    3. Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    4. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dosi, Giovanni & Rebesco, Igor, 2005. "Institutional architectures and behavioral ecologies in the dynamics of financial markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 197-228, February.
    5. Giovanni Dosi, 2012. "Economic Coordination and Dynamics: Some Elements of an Alternative "Evolutionary" Paradigm," LEM Papers Series 2012/08, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. R. Aversi & G. Dosi & G. Fagiolo & M. Meacci & C. Olivetti, 1997. "Demand Dynamics With Socially Evolving Preferences," Working Papers ir97081, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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