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A statistical model for the temporal pattern of individual automated teller machine withdrawals

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  • Adam R. Brentnall
  • Martin J. Crowder
  • David J. Hand

Abstract

Models of consumer behaviour that are based purely on empirical relationships in data can perform well in the short term but often degrade rapidly with changing circumstances. Superior longer-term performance can sometimes be attained by developing models for the deeper processes underlying the consumer behaviour. We develop a random-effects point process model for automated teller machine withdrawals. Estimation, prediction and computational issues are discussed. The model may be used to predict behaviour for an individual and to assess when state changes in individual behaviour have occurred and as a description of behaviour for a portfolio of accounts. Copyright 2008 Royal Statistical Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam R. Brentnall & Martin J. Crowder & David J. Hand, 2008. "A statistical model for the temporal pattern of individual automated teller machine withdrawals," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 57(1), pages 43-59.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:57:y:2008:i:1:p:43-59
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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2008.00599.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shyamal D. Peddada & Joseph K. Haseman & Xiaofeng Tan & Greg Travlos, 2006. "Tests for a simple tree order restriction with application to dose-response studies," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 55(4), pages 493-506.
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    Cited by:

    1. Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013. "The Properties of ATMs Development Stages - an Empirical Analysis," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 14(3), pages 443-466, September.
    2. Brentnall, Adam R. & Crowder, Martin J. & Hand, David J., 2011. "Approximate repeated-measures shrinkage," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1150-1159, February.
    3. Henryk Gurgul & Marcin Suder, 2013. "Modeling of withdrawals from selected ATMs of the "Euronet" network," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 13, pages 65-82.
    4. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:61:y:2010:i:3:d:10.1057_jors.2009.160 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gediminas Žylius, 2015. "Evaluation of ATM Cash Demand Process Factors Applied for Forecasting with CI Models," Copernican Journal of Finance & Accounting, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 4(2), pages 211-235.

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