Are Judgment Errors Reflected in Market Prices and Allocations? Experimental Evidence Based on the Monty Hall Problem
The question of whether individual judgment errors survive in market equilibrium is an issue that naturally lends itself to experimental analysis. Here, the Monty Hall problem is used to detect probability judgment errors both in a cohort of individuals and in a market setting. When all subjects in a cohort made probability judgment errors, market prices also reflected the error. However, competition among two bias-free subjects was sufficient to drive prices to error-free levels. Thus, heterogeneity in behavior can be an important factor in asset pricing, and further, it may take few bias-free traders to make asset prices bias-free. Copyright 2004 by The American Finance Association.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 59 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (06)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.afajof.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.afajof.org/membership/join.asp|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:969-998. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.