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The Term Structure with Semi-credible Targeting

Author

Listed:
  • Heber Farnsworth

    (Washington University in St. Louis)

  • Richard Bass

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

The Federal Reserve sets targets for interest rates which it enforces through direct market intervention. These targets are changed periodically. In this paper, we develop a term structure model in which the short rate is subject to a control which keeps it close to a target which changes from time to time. The probability of target changes is not constant in the model, but changes as a function of observables. The model performs well at explaining the shifts in the yield curve that accompany target changes. Copyright (c) 2003 by the American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Heber Farnsworth & Richard Bass, 2003. "The Term Structure with Semi-credible Targeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 839-866, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:839-866
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    Cited by:

    1. Forde, Martin & Kumar, Rohini & Zhang, Hongzhong, 2015. "Large deviations for the boundary local time of doubly reflected Brownian motion," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 262-268.
    2. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Stockholm School of Economics, China Economic Research Center.
    3. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
    4. José Carlos Nogueira Cavalcante Filho & Edson Daniel Lopes Gonçalves, 2015. "Jump Diffusion Modelling for the Brazilian Short-Term Interest Rate," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 12(1), pages 80-103, January.
    5. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2010. "China's official rates and bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 996-1007, May.

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