Around and Around: The Expectations Hypothesis
We show how to construct models of the term structure of interest rates in which the expectations hypothesis holds. McCulloch (1993) presents such a model, thereby contradicting an assertion by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1981), but his example is Gaussian and falls outside the class of finite-dimensional Markovian models. We generalize McCulloch's model in three ways: (i) We provide an arbitrage-free characterization of the unbiased expectations hypothesis in terms of forward rates; (ii) we extend this characterization to a whole class of expectations hypotheses; and (iii) we show how to construct finite-dimensional Markovian and non-Gaussian examples. Copyright The American Finance Association 1998.
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Volume (Year): 53 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
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- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1981. "A Re-examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 769-99, September.
- John Y. Campbell, 1984.
"A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses About the Term Structure of InterestRates,"
NBER Working Papers
1508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y, 1986. " A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 183-93, March.
- Campbell, John, 1986. "A Defense of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Scholarly Articles 3207698, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
NBER Working Papers
3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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