Financial Statement Information, the Prediction of Book Return on Owners' Equity and Market Efficiency: The Swedish Case
Using Swedish data, this study investigates whether financial statement information can be used to predict changes in the medium-term book return on owners' equity and subsequently evaluates the performance of trading strategies based on such predictions. A univariate prediction model based on the past book return has higher prediction accuracy than more elaborate models that include additional accounting numbers. The main trading strategy generates a hedge position return of 29% over a three-year holding period. Interestingly, most of the return is attributable to the long position. However, the results are found to be sensitive to the choice of return metric. Copyright (c) 2008 The Author Journal compilation (c) 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
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Volume (Year): 35 (2008-09)
Issue (Month): 7-8 ()
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