IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

  • Alain Durré
  • Pierre Giot

This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2007.02010.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Business Finance & Accounting.

Volume (Year): 34 (2007-04)
Issue (Month): 3-4 ()
Pages: 613-641

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:34:y:2007-04:i:3-4:p:613-641
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0306-686X

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard D.F. Harris & Rene Sanchez-Valle, 2000. "The Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio and the Predictability of UK and US Equity Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3-4), pages 333-357.
  4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Carlo A. Favero & Federico Mosca, . "Uncertainty on Monetary Policy and the Expectations Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 179, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  6. Joel Lander & Athanasios Orphanides & Martha Douvogiannis, 1997. "Earnings forecasts and the predictability of stock returns: evidence from trading the S&P," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-6, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  8. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Levin, Eric J & Wright, Robert E, 1998. "The Information Content of the Gilt-Equity Yield Ratio," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 66(0), pages 89-101, Supplemen.
  11. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 11018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. MacDonald, Ronald & Power, David, 1995. "Stock prices, dividends and retention: Long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 135-151, June.
  13. S. I. Spyrou, 2004. "Are stocks a good hedge against inflation? evidence from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 41-48.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:34:y:2007-04:i:3-4:p:613-641. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.