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An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields

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  • Alain Durré
  • Pierre Giot

Abstract

This paper assesses the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, earnings and long-term government bond yields for a large number of countries. The time period of our data spans several decades. In a time series framework our analysis first tests the presence of a long-term contemporaneous relationship between these three variables (the so-called Fed model). Next, we assess if government bond yields play a significant role in the long-run relationship. Our empirical results question the validity of the Fed model in the sense that we show that long-term market movements are mainly driven by the earnings yield and not the differential between bond and earnings yields. As such, our analysis validates the results of Asness (2003) for a much larger collection of countries while using a dynamic time series (cointegration) framework. Finally, we also show that changes in long-term government bond yields have a short-term impact on stock prices. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Durré & Pierre Giot, 2007. "An International Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3-4), pages 613-641.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:34:y:2007-04:i:3-4:p:613-641
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joel Lander & Athanasios Orphanides & Martha Douvogiannis, "undated". "Earnings Forecasts and the Predictability of Stock Returns: Evidence from Trading the S&P;," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2014. "Fractional integration and cointegration in US financial time series data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1389-1410, December.
    2. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    3. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    4. Jokivuolle, Esa & Keppo, Jussi & Yuan, Xuchuan, 2015. "Bonus caps, deferrals and bankers' risk-taking," Research Discussion Papers 5/2015, Bank of Finland.
    5. Joseph Friedman & Yochanan Shachmurove, 2005. "European Stock Market Dynamics Before and After the Introduction of the Euro," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. repec:rfa:aefjnl:v:4:y:2017:i:6:p:107-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Geert Langenus, 2006. "Fiscal sustainability indicators and policy design in the face of ageing," Working Paper Research 102, National Bank of Belgium.
    8. Jokivuolle, Esa & Keppo, Jussi, 2014. "Bankers' compensation: : Sprint swimming in short bonus pools?," Research Discussion Papers 2/2014, Bank of Finland.
    9. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503041096 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Shakizada Niyazbekova & Igor Grekov & Tatiana Blokhina, 2016. "The Influence Of Macroeconomic Factors To The Dynamics Of Stock Exchange In The Republic Of Kazakhstan," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1263-1273.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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