IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v33y2006-09i7-8p1087-1109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ran Barniv
  • Mark Myring

Abstract

In this paper we examine whether the valuation properties of historical accounting amounts, namely earnings and equity book value, differ from those of forecasted earnings for firms in 17 developed countries classified into six accounting regimes. We compare the performance of a historical model and a residual-income forecast model for explaining security prices. The historical model uses the book value of equities and actual historical earnings and the forecast model uses the book value of equities and analysts' forecasts of earnings in the residual income for estimating the intrinsic value of the firm. The results suggest that book values, historical earnings or forecasted earnings are value relevant in most regimes and countries examined. The forecast model offers significantly greater explanatory power for security prices than the historical model in the Anglo-Saxon and North American countries, Japan, Germany, and three Nordic countries. The explanatory power of the historical model is similar to that of the forecast model in the Latin countries, two Nordic countries, and Switzerland. We find that the forecast model performs similarly to the historical model where financial analysts' forecasts are noisy and analysts are less active. Further results indicate that the forecasted earnings are more value-relevant than the historical earnings in countries with stronger investor protection laws, less conservative GAAP, greater income conservatism, and more transparent accounting systems. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Ran Barniv & Mark Myring, 2006. "An International Analysis of Historical and Forecast Earnings in Accounting-Based Valuation Models," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7-8), pages 1087-1109.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:33:y:2006-09:i:7-8:p:1087-1109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2006.00596.x
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Ghiselli Ricci & Carlo Alberto Magni, 2014. "Axiomatization of residual income and generation of financial securities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(7), pages 1257-1271, July.
    2. Eric Melse, 2008. "Accounting in three dimensions: a case for momentum revisited," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 9(4), pages 334-350, August.
    3. Feng Chen & Kenton K. Yee & Yong Keun Yoo, 2010. "Robustness of Judicial Decisions to Valuation-Method Innovation: An Exploratory Empirical Study," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9-10), pages 1094-1114, November/.
    4. Christopher Koch & Ola Nilsson & Katarina Eriksson, 2014. "Does shareholder protection affect the performance of analysts as a gatekeeper?," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 18(2), pages 315-345, May.
    5. Tswei, Keshin, 2013. "Is transaction price more value relevant compared to accounting information? An investigation of a time-series approach," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1062-1078.
    6. Magni, Carlo Alberto, 2009. "Splitting up value: A critical review of residual income theories," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1-2), pages 130-160.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:33:y:2006-09:i:7-8:p:1087-1109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.