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Tracking the Euro's Progress

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  • Chinn, Menzie D
  • Alquist, Ron

Abstract

The evolution of the euro since its inception has appeared inexplicable. This paper develops a monetary model of the euro/US dollar exchange rate to track the progress of the currency, both before and after Stage 3 EMU. The relationship between the exchange rate, money stocks, GDP, interest and inflation rates, and prices is identified. The observed patterns of behaviour during the 1990s are used to predict the euro's value up to mid-2000; a consistent finding is that the euro is over-predicted by 23-30%. This finding is robust to the use of alternative sample periods and alternative estimation methodologies, as long as each of the variables is treated as endogenous. This monetary model does not give much weight to factors such as productivity. However, the past evolution of European exchange rates suggests that productivity trends are indeed important. Some estimates suggest that an annual one percentage point in the intercountry differential in tradable-nontradable productivity causes a 0.85-1.7% real appreciation of a currency. Since recent sectoral productivity data are unavailable, we rely upon potential GDP measures to assess likely trends in the euro. We conclude that without an upward shift in Euroland potential growth, the euro will tend to depreciate over time. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd.

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  • Chinn, Menzie D & Alquist, Ron, 2000. "Tracking the Euro's Progress," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(3), pages 357-373, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:3:p:357-73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2006. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 1877-1893.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, pages 47-71.
    3. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, pages 47-71.
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    Cited by:

    1. Helmut Frisch, 2003. "The euro and its consequences: What makes a currency strong?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, pages 15-31.
    2. Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2010. "L'impact des chocs externes sur et à l'intérieur de la zone euro : les enseignements d'un modèle vectoriel autorégressif structurel," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(4), pages 15-33.
    3. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2001. "Macroeconomic news and the euro/dollar exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 105, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 27-42, 04.
      • Giancarlo Corsetti & John Flemming & Seppo Honkapohja & Willi Leibfritz & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Xavier Vives, 2002. "The Weakness of the Euro: Is it Really a Mystery?," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2002(CESIFOFOR), pages 27-42, 04.
    5. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
    6. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2002. "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Philip Arestis & Andrew Brown & Kostas Mouratidis & Malcolm Sawyer, 2002. "The Euro: Reflections on the first three years," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1-17.
    8. Michael Frenkel & Isabell Koske, 2004. "How well can monetary factors explain the exchange rate of the euro?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, pages 233-244.
    9. Jean-François Goux, 2008. "Ruptures épaisses et stationnarité en tendance : le cas du taux de change euro-dollar," Post-Print halshs-00333576, HAL.
    10. Gabriele Galati & Corrinne Ho, 2003. "Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 32(3), pages 371-398, November.
    11. Pompeo Della Posta, 2005. "Fundamentals, International Role of Euro and 'Framing' of Expectations: What are the Determinants of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate?," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 24, Departamento de Economia, Gestão e Engenharia Industrial, Universidade de Aveiro.
    12. Bernd Schnatz, 2007. "Is reversion to PPP in euro exchange rates non-linear?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, pages 281-297.
    13. Heng Chen & Dietrich K. Fausten & Wing-Keung Wong, 2006. "Evolution Of Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate Before And After The Birth Of Euro And Policy Implications," Monash Economics Working Papers 14/06, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    14. Nautz, Dieter & Offermanns, Christian J., 2006. "Does the Euro follow the German Mark? Evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 1279-1295.
    15. Giancarlo Corsetti & Michael P. Devereux & John Hassler & Tim Jenkinson & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2009. "Chapter 1: The European Economy: Macroeconomic Outlook and Policy," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, pages 11-57.

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