IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy

Listed author(s):
  • Stephan Sauer
  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

Over the last decade, the simple instrument policy rule developed by Taylor has become a popular tool for evaluating the monetary policy of central banks. As an extensive empirical analysis of the European Central Bank's (ECB) past behaviour still seems to be in its infancy, we estimate several instrument policy reaction functions for the ECB to shed some light on actual monetary policy in the euro area under the presidency of Wim Duisenberg and answer questions like whether the ECB has actually followed a stabilizing or a destabilizing rule so far. Looking at contemporaneous Taylor rules, the evidence presented suggests that the ECB is accommodating changes in inflation and hence follows a destabilizing policy. However, this impression seems to be largely due to the lack of a forward-looking perspective in such specifications. Either assuming rational expectations and using a forward-looking specification, or using expectations as derived from surveys result in Taylor rules that do imply a stabilizing role of the ECB. The use of real-time industrial production data does not seem to play such a significant role as in the case of the United States. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2007.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-0475.2007.00413.x
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 8 (2007)
Issue (Month): (08)
Pages: 375-398

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:375-398
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1465-6485
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1465-6485

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan J. & Galbraith, John W. & Hendry, David, 1993. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288107.
  2. Paolo Surico, 2003. "Asymmetric Reaction Functions for the Euro Area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 44-57.
  3. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  4. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting : Implementaing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," Papers 615, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Clausen, Volker & Hayo, Bernd, 2002. "Monetary policy in the Euro area: Lessons from the first years," ZEI Working Papers B 09-2002, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
  6. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 5-33.
  9. John P. Judd & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1998. "Taylor's rule and the Fed, 1970-1997," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
  10. Gabriel Pérez Quirós & Jorge Sicilia, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Papers 0229, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  11. Fourçans, André & Vranceanu, Radu, 2002. "ECB Monetary Policy Rule: Some Theory and Empirical Evidence," ESSEC Working Papers DR 02008, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
  12. Ullrich, Katrin, 2003. "A Comparison Between the Fed and the ECB: Taylor Rules," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-19, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  13. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1988. "Reflections on Econometric Methodology," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 893, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  15. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2003. "Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(04), pages 7-23, 02.
  16. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 1999. "Uncertainty and the Taylor rule in a simple model of the Euro-area economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  17. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  18. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Seminar Papers 625, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  19. G. Goldrian & J.D. Lindbauer & G. Nerb & B. Ulrich, 2001. "Evaluation and development of confidence indicators based on harmonised business and consumer surveys (Study contracted to IFO, Munich)," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 151, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  20. Jeffery D. Amato & Thomas Laubach, 1999. "The value of interest rate smoothing : how the private sector helps the Federal Reserve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 47-64.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:375-398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.