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Long-Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence

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  • Helmut Herwartz
  • Hans-Eggert Reimers

Abstract

Starting from the quantity theory of money we analyse the dynamic relationships between money, real output and prices for an unbalanced panel of 110 economies. Complementary to trivariate analyses we also adopt a P-star model explaining inflation via an equilibrium price level (P-star), which in turn depends on potential output and money. A key issue of the paper is the cross-sectional stability of estimation and inference results. We find cointegration among the considered variables. Particularly for high inflation countries homogeneity between prices and money cannot be rejected. Given homogeneity we find evidence for an error-correction mechanism linking current price changes and the lagged price gap. Parameter estimates indicating the adjustment towards the price equilibrium are larger in absolute value for high inflation countries. The latter results indicate that central banks, even in high inflation countries, can improve price stability by controlling monetary growth. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Helmut Herwartz & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Long-Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 65-86, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:65-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Özgür Aslan & Levent Korap, 2007. "Testing Quantity Theory of Money for the Turkish Economy," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 1(2), pages 93-109.
    2. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Long-run relations between money, prices and output: the case of Turkey," MPRA Paper 20265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2012. "Monetary Policy in a World Where Money (Also) Matters," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Kelly, Logan J., 2015. "The Quantity Theory Revisited: A New Structural Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 58-78, January.
    5. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2013. "On the Temporal Causal Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables: Empirical Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 46803, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Money and inflation: Consequences of the recent monetary policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 520-537.
    7. Gregory N. Price & Juliet U. Elu, 2014. "Does regional currency integration ameliorate global macroeconomic shocks in sub-Saharan Africa? The case of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 737-750, September.
    8. Levent, Korap, 2009. "The search for co-integration between money, prices and income: low frequency evidence from the Turkish economy," MPRA Paper 19557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Levent Korap, 2009. "Parasal Buyume ve Tuketici Enflasyonu Degisim Orani Arasindaki Nedensellik Iliskisi Uzerine Bir Deneme: Turkiye Ornegi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 9(1), pages 56-74, May.
    11. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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