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Open-Economy Inflation-Forecast Targeting

Listed author(s):
  • Kai Leitemo

We study simple inflation-forecast targeting in an open-economy setting. Simple inflation-forecast targeting implies setting an interest rate which, if kept unchanged throughout the forecast-targeting horizon, produces a conditional inflation forecast equal to the inflation target at the end of the horizon. We find that the optimal forecast-targeting horizon is relatively short (one year). A longer horizon does not consistently contribute to improved output stability, indeed it increases exchange rate variability and traded sector variability. The targeting procedure is substantially inferior to the optimal pre-commitment policy. Moreover, the targeting procedure does not necessarily determine the rational-expectations equilibrium and is subject to time inconsistency. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2006.

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Article provided by Verein für Socialpolitik in its journal German Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 7 (2006)
Issue (Month): (02)
Pages: 35-64

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Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:7:y:2006:i::p:35-64
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  1. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1998. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," Seminar Papers 644, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Fisher, P G, et al, 1990. "Econometric Evaluation of the Exchange Rate in Models of the UK Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1230-1244, December.
  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Andrew G. Haldane & Nicoletta Batini, 1998. "Forward-Looking Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," NBER Working Papers 7147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  8. Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 393-413, March.
  9. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-984, November.
  10. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2001. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  11. repec:adr:anecst:y:2002:i:67-68:p:16 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, "undated". "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," GSIA Working Papers 1997-71, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  13. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
  14. Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2000. "Optimal Horizons for Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 103, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  15. repec:nsr:niesrd:85 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
  17. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
  18. Blake, Andrew P & Westaway, Peter F, 1996. "Credibility and the Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting Regimes," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 64(0), pages 28-50, Suppl..
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