A First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area
Core inflation plays an important role in the deliberations of monetary policy-makers. In this paper we evaluate a number of measures of core inflation constructed using euro-area data. In addition to the traditional exclusion-type core measures, we examine two newer ones, documenting their properties and evaluating their performance in terms of their ability to track underlying or trend inflation in real time. We focus on core measures derived from the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as the European Central Bank has chosen to define its mandate for price stability in terms of this index, and because this is the only index of consumer prices that is compiled in a comparable manner across all members of the European Union. We document significant excess kurtosis in the cross-section distribution of price changes in the euro area, and show that several categories of prices are more volatile than those typically excluded from traditional measures of core inflation. Contrary to what one might expect, traditional measures of core inflation are not significantly less volatile than headline measures. We document the superior performance of alternative measures of core inflation in tracking trend inflation on average, but show that none of the various measures of core gave significant advance warning of the pickup in trend inflation at the beginning of 1999. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2003.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 4 (2003)
Issue (Month): (08)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1465-6485|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1465-6485|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hasan Bakhshi & Tony Yates, 1999. "To trim or not to trim? An application of a trimmmed mean inflation estimator to the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 97, Bank of England.
- Luc Aucremanne, 2000. "The use of robust estimators as measures of core inflation," Working Paper Research 02, National Bank of Belgium.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999.
"Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues,"
Working Paper Series
0005, European Central Bank.
- Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 205-228.
- Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Papers 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento, 2000.
"Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators,"
w200003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1999. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
- Ball, L. & Mankiw, G.H., 1992.
"Relative-Price Change as Aggregate Supply Shocks,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1609, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1992. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1993. "Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks," Working Papers 93-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Jonathan Kearns, 1998. "The Distribution and Measurement of Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9810, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Meyler, Aidan, 1999.
"A statistical measure of core inflation,"
11362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aucremanne, L., 2000. "The Use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," Papers 2, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
- repec:ubc:bricol:95-31 is not listed on IDEAS
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
- Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
- Franck Sédillot & Hervé Le Bihan, 2002. "Implementing and interpreting indicators of core inflation: the case of France," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 473-497.
- Luis J. Álvarez & María de los Llanos Matea, 1999.
"Underlying Inflation Measures in Spain,"
9911, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1996.
"Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers,"
NBER Working Papers
5786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
- Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1997. "Inflation Measures for Monetary Policy: Measuring the Underlying Inflation Trend and Its Implication for Monetary Policy Implementation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(2), pages 1-26, December.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins, 1997.
"Efficient inflation estimation,"
9707, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Vega, Juan Luis & Wynne, Mark A., 2001. "An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0053, European Central Bank.
- Michael F. Bryan & Christopher J. Pike, 1991. "Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
- Bryan, Michael-F & Cecchetti, Stephen-G, 1999. "The Monthly Measurement of Core Inflation in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 17(1), pages 77-101, May.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, . "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:4:y:2003:i::p:269-306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.