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Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area

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  • Sandra Eickmeier
  • Boris Hofmann
  • Andreas Worms

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic response of loans to the private sector and of economic activity to aggregate supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in Germany and the euro area based on a standard macroeconomic VAR using sign restrictions to identify the structural shocks. The main results of this analysis are that (i) with the exception of the response to the supply shock in Germany, the response of loans to the three macroeconomic shocks is rather weak and in most cases insignificant; (ii) the 2000-05 credit slowdown and weak economic performance in Germany were primarily driven by adverse supply shocks; and (iii) the marked slowdown in credit creation in Germany over this period actually represents a realignment of the outstanding stock of loans with its deterministic level. In order to assess the role of bank lending in the transmission of macroeconomic shocks, we further perform counterfactual simulations and analyze the dynamic responses of German loan subaggregates in order to test the distributional implications of potential credit market frictions. These exercises do not indicate that credit market frictions play an amplifying role in the transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal Compilation 2009 Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2009.

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  • Sandra Eickmeier & Boris Hofmann & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Bank Lending: Evidence for Germany and the Euro Area," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 193-223, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:10:y:2009:i::p:193-223
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    Cited by:

    1. Mokinski, Frieder, 2017. "A severity function approach to scenario selection," Discussion Papers 34/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    3. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    4. Burgstaller Johann, 2010. "Bank Lending and Monetary Policy Transmission in Austria," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(2), pages 163-185, April.
    5. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    6. Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2010. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1839-1848, August.
    7. Legrand, Romain, 2014. "Euro introduction: Has there been a structural change? Study on 10 European Union countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 136-151.
    8. Tomas Havranek & Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Transmission Lags of Monetary Policy: A Meta-Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(4), pages 39-76, December.
    9. Klaus Abberger & André Kunkel, 2008. "Unternehmen leiden kaum unter Finanzierungsschwierigkeiten durch die Finanzmarktkrise," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 29-31, May.
    10. Matthias Balz, 2008. "Branchen im Blickpunkt: Die ökologische Lebensmittelwirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 23-28, May.
    11. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
    12. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    13. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Krainer, Robert E., 2014. "Monetary policy and bank lending in the Euro area: Is there a stock market channel or an interest rate channel?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 283-298.
    15. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    17. Ricardo Bebczuk & Tamara Burdisso & Jorge Carrera & Máximo Sangiácomo, 2011. "A New Look into Credit Procyclicality: International Panel Evidence," BCRA Working Paper Series 201155, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department.
    18. Vít Pošta & Zdeněk Pikhart, 2015. "Financial Risk and Real Variables: Evidence Based on a SVAR Analysis of the Czech Economy," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(5), pages 516-537.
    19. Muellbauer, John & Geiger, Felix & Rupprecht, Manuel, 2016. "The housing market, household portfolios and the German consumer," Working Paper Series 1904, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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