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Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe

Author

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  • Romain Ranciere
  • Aaron Tornell
  • Athanasios Vamvakidis

Abstract

"Currency mismatch is a vehicle that exposes the economy to systemic risk, but it is also an engine of growth. We analyse this dual role at the macro and the micro levels. At the aggregate level, we construct a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers - that is, those with no foreign currency income. Using our measure, we find that across emerging European economies, increases in currency mismatch are associated with higher growth in tranquil times, but also with more severe crises. On net, after taking into account the crisis period, we find a positive link between currency mismatch and growth. These results are also confirmed for a broader sample of emerging economies. In our firm-level analysis, we find that in emerging Europe, currency mismatch relaxes borrowing constraints, reduces interest rates and enhances growth across sets of firms that arguably are the most credit constrained - that is, small firms in non-tradables sectors - but not across large firms. An advantage of our approach is that it considers both listed and non-listed firms, and so we are able to effectively capture the effects of currency mismatch across the entire economy, not just the financially privileged stock market listed firms." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 597-658, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:25:y:2010:i::p:597-658
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    Cited by:

    1. Mykhaylova Olena & Staveley-O’Carroll James, 2014. "International transmission of productivity shocks with nonzero net foreign debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, January.
    2. Joseph Crowley, 2015. "Central and Commercial Bank Balance Sheet Risk Before, During, and After the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 15/47, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Loayza,Norman V. & Ouazad,Amine & Ranciere,Romain, 2017. "Financial development, growth, and crisis: is there a trade-off ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8237, The World Bank.
    4. Kátay, Gábor & Péter, Harasztosi, 2017. "Currency Matching and Carry Trade by Non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers 2017-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    5. Endrész, Marianna & Harasztosi, Péter, 2014. "Corporate foreign currency borrowing and investment: The case of Hungary," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 265-287.
    6. Nephil Matangi Maskay & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2014. "On Remittances, Foreign Currency Exposure and Credit Constraints: Evidence from Nepal," CESifo Working Paper Series 5053, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Martin Brown & Helmut Stix, 2015. "The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 95-139.
    8. Mirna Dumičić & Vedran Šošić, 2014. "Credit cycles and central bank policy in Croatia: lessons from the 2000s," Chapters,in: Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 7, pages 96-113 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 1. Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises: The Role of Bank-Balance-Sheet Contagion and Financial Account Structure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 902, OECD Publishing.
    10. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
    11. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk," IMF Working Papers 10/263, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Mariann Endrész & Gyõzõ Gyöngyösi & Péter Harasztosi, 2012. "Currency mismatch and the sub-prime crisis: firm-level stylised facts from Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2012/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Wagner, Charlotte, 2010. "From boom to bust: how different has microfinance been from traditional banking?," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 156, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    15. Svatopluk Kapounek, 2017. "The Impact of Institutional Quality on Bank Lending Activity: Evidence from Bayesian Model Averaging," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(5), pages 372-395, October.
    16. Aron Gereben & Ferenc Karvalits & Zalan Kocsis, 2011. "Monetary policy challenges during the crisis in a small open dollarised economy: the case of Hungary," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Capital flows, commodity price movements and foreign exchange intervention, volume 57, pages 179-188 Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    18. Krzysztof Czerkas, 2016. "The foreign currency mortgage loans in the Polish banking sector and its possible macroeconomic and political consequences," Lodz Economics Working Papers 8/2016, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    19. Brown, M. & de Haas, R., 2010. "Foreign Currency Lending in Emerging Europe : Bank Level Evidence," Discussion Paper 2010-135, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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