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Monetary policy and financial imbalances: facts and fiction

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  • Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche
  • Stefan Gerlach

Abstract

"Following the financial crisis, many have argued that monetary policy should lean against asset price increases and that deviations of credit and asset prices from trend can be used to capture financial imbalances. We study quarterly data spanning 1986-2008 for a sample of 18 countries and argue that such measures contain little information useful for forecasting the future economic conditions. This casts doubts on the leaning-against-the-wind view. We also argue that tightening monetary policy in response to such imbalances are likely to depress real growth substantially. That finding, however, is sensitive to the Lucas critique." Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2010. "Monetary policy and financial imbalances: facts and fiction," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 437-482, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:25:y:2010:i::p:437-482
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    2. Tomas Havranek & Mojmir Hampl, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech National Bank's Approach," Research and Policy Notes 2017/01, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:42:y:2011:i:2011-02:p:289-352 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.
    5. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Roffia, Barbara, 2015. "Consumer and asset prices: Some recent evidence," Wismar Discussion Papers 01/2015, Hochschule Wismar, Wismar Business School.
    6. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Macroeconomic Stability, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy Rules," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 205-224, June.
    8. Gunther Tichy, 2011. "Why did policy ignore the harbingers of the crisis?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 107-130, February.
    9. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    10. Beckers, Benjamin, 2015. "The real-time predictive content of asset price bubbles for macro forecasts," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112852, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2012. "Practical Monetary Policy: Examples from Sweden and the United States," NBER Working Papers 17823, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. repec:bla:econpa:v:36:y:2017:i:4:p:444-458 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:bis:bisbpc:94-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Philip R. Lane, 2011. "External Imbalances and Macroeconomic Policy in New Zealand," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp376, IIIS.
    15. Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek, 2017. "Should Inflation Measures Used by Central Banks Incorporate House Prices? The Czech Approach," Working Papers IES 2017/12, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2017.
    16. Ioanna Kokores, 2015. "Lean-Against-the-Wind Monetary Policy: The Post-Crisis Shift in the Literature," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 66-99, july-Dece.
    17. Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Macro-Financial Stability under EMU," Trinity Economics Papers tep0615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    18. João Sousa & Carla Soares & Isabel Gameiro, 2011. "Monetary policy and financial stability: an open debate," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. German Forero-Laverde, 2016. "Are All Booms and Busts Created Equal? A New Methodology for Understanding Bull and Bear Stock Markets," UB Economics Working Papers 2016/339, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB Economics.
    20. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    21. Philip Lane, 2010. "Some Lessons for Fiscal Policy from the Financial Crisis," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp334, IIIS.
    22. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 233-283, April.
    23. Svensson, Lars E O, 2013. "Some Lessons from Six Years of Practical Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 9756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Lane, Philip R., 2015. "Macro-Financial Stability under EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 10776, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Fischbacher, Urs & Hens, Thorsten & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2013. "The impact of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2104-2122.

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