Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts
type="main" xml:lang="en"> We point out that official forecasts of output dynamics are crucial to the assessment of cyclically adjusted budget balances, and provide evidence that in some euro-area countries biased forecasts have played a thus far neglected role in generating excessive deficits. We suggest that the forecast bias may be politically motivated, and that forecasts produced by an independent authority would be better than in-house Ministry of Finance forecasts for the purpose of monitoring budget formation and budget outcomes. — Lars Jonung and Martin Larch
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 21 (2006)
Issue (Month): 47 (07)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3rd Floor, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ|
Phone: +44 (0)20 7183 8801
Fax: +44 (0)20 7183 8820
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0266-4658
More information through EDIRC
Postal:Schackstr. 4, 80539 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 2180-2748
Fax: +49 (89) 39 73 03
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/ifoHome/f-about/f2aboutces
More information through EDIRC
Postal:48 boulevard Jourdan - 75014 Paris
Phone: 01 43 13 63 00
Fax: 01 43 13 63 10
Web page: http://www.pse.ens.fr/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0266-4658|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996.
"Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions,"
IMF Working Papers
96/52, International Monetary Fund.
- André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Bretschneider, Stuart I. & Gorr, Wilpen L. & Grizzle, Gloria & Klay, Earle, 1989. "Political and organizational influences on the accuracy of forecasting state government revenues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 307-319.
- Lorenzo Forni & Sandro Momigliano, 2004.
"Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
540, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Forni, Lorenzo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "Cyclical sensitivity of fiscal policies based on real-time data," MPRA Paper 4315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Artis, M. & Marcellino, M., 1999.
"Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC,"
Economics Working Papers
eco99/22, European University Institute.
- Michael Artis & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2001. "Fiscal forecasting: The track record of the IMF, OECD and EC," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 20-36.
- Artis, Michael J & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD, and EC," CEPR Discussion Papers 2206, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Xavier Debrun, 2004.
"Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 431-456, November.
- Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Xavier Debrun, 2003. "Reconciling Stability and Growth; Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms," IMF Working Papers 03/174, International Monetary Fund.
- Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier, 2003. "Reconciling Stability and Growth: Smart Pacts and Structural Reforms," CEPR Discussion Papers 3930, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Buti & D. Franco & H. Ongena, 1997.
"Budgetary Policies during Recessions - Retrospective Application of the "Stability and Growth Pact" to the Post-War Period,"
European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015
121, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Marco BUTI & Daniele FRANCO & Hedwig ONGENA, 1997. "Budgeetary Policies during Recessions : Retrospective Application of the Stability and Growth Pact” to the Post-War Period," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1997041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- John B. Taylor, 2000. "Reassessing Discretionary Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 21-36, Summer.
- Lars Jonung, 2002. "EMU and the euro - the first 10 years. Challenges to the sustainability and price stability of the euro area - what does history tell us?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 165, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "The Limits to Discretionary Fiscal Stabilization Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 92-105, Winter.
- Blanchard, Olivier J & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Improving the SGP Through a Proper Accounting of Public Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Rolf Strauch & Mark Hallerberg & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004.
"Budgetary Forecasts in Europe – The Track Record of Stability and Convergence Programmes,"
Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces
E2004/42, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
- Strauch, Rolf & Hallerberg, Mark & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2004. "Budgetary forecasts in Europe - the track record of stability and convergence programmes," Working Paper Series 0307, European Central Bank.
- Lars Calmfors, 2003. "Fiscal Policy to Stabilise the Domestic Economy in the EMU: What Can We Learn from Monetary Policy?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 49(3), pages 319-353.
- Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
- Willem H. Buiter & Clemens Grafe, 2004. "Patching up the Pact," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 12(1), pages 67-102, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:47:p:491-534. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.