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Broadband Delivered Entertainment Services: Forecasting Australian Subscription Intentions

  • Madden, Gary
  • Simpson, Michel
  • Savage, Scott

This study estimates a nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of broadband delivered entertainment service subscription that allows for the impact of an installation fee and rental price, service attributes and household demographic variables on subscription. The model is estimated on stated-preference data obtained from an Australia-wide survey of capital cities and provincial centres. Nested multinomial logit model estimates are used to provide forecasts that suggest 65 per cent of separate residences passed are likely to subscribe at 2000. This percentage translates into 1,237,744 subscribers. Copyright 2002 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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Article provided by The Economic Society of Australia in its journal The Economic Record.

Volume (Year): 78 (2002)
Issue (Month): 243 (December)
Pages: 422-32

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:243:p:422-32
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  1. Hausman, Jerry & McFadden, Daniel, 1984. "Specification Tests for the Multinomial Logit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(5), pages 1219-40, September.
  2. Brownstone, David & Train, Kenneth, 1999. "Forecasting new product penetration with flexible substitution patterns," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3tb6j874, University of California Transportation Center.
  3. Hensher, David A, 1986. "Sequential and Full Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Nested Logit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 657-67, November.
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  8. Bewley, Ronald & Fiebig, Denzil G., 1988. "A flexible logistic growth model with applications in telecommunications," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-192.
  9. Madden, Gary, 1995. "Experimentation in Economics: An Overview of the Stated-Preference Experimental Design Method," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(64), pages 120-35, June.
  10. Fry, T.R.L. & Harris, M.N., 1994. "Testing for Independence or Irrelevent Alternatives: Some Empirical Results," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/94, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  11. Bhat, Chandra R., 1995. "A heteroscedastic extreme value model of intercity travel mode choice," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 471-483, December.
  12. Hensher, David & Louviere, Jordan & Swait, Joffre, 1998. "Combining sources of preference data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 197-221, November.
  13. Harvey S. Rosen & Kenneth A. Small, 1979. "Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 0319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  15. Adamowicz, Wiktor L. & Boxall, Peter C. & Williams, Michael & Louviere, Jordan, 1995. "Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments versus Contingent Valuation," Staff Paper Series 24126, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
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