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Accounting for Growth and Output Gaps: Evidence from New Zealand


  • Fox, Kevin J
  • Kohli, Ulrich
  • Warren, Ronald S, Jr


We evaluate New Zealand's macroeconomic performance over the 1967-96 period, which witnessed numerous economic reforms. Using both index-number and econometric techniques, we decompose nominal GDP growth and the output gap into contributions from price level changes, productivity growth and changes in factor utilisation. Changes in domestic prices accounted for four-fifths of the growth in nominal GDP, while capital accumulation and employment growth were the most important factors determining real-output growth. Deviations in the domestic price level around its long-run trend contributed most heavily to changes in the nominal output gap. The real gap was influenced in any year variously by deviations of the terms of trade and labour input from their long-run trends, as well as by productivity shocks. Copyright 2002 by The Economic Society of Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Fox, Kevin J & Kohli, Ulrich & Warren, Ronald S, Jr, 2002. "Accounting for Growth and Output Gaps: Evidence from New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(242), pages 312-326, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:242:p:312-26

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Arthur Grimes & Jason Wong, 1992. "The role of the exchange rate in New Zealand monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 176-197.
    2. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    3. Lastrapes, William D, 1992. "Sources of Fluctuations in Real and Nominal Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(3), pages 530-539, August.
    4. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Gruen, David W R & Wilkinson, Jenny, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate--Is It Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Andreas Fischer, 1993. "Inflation Targeting: The New Zealand and Canadian Cases," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, Spring/Su.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardi, Olivier, 2007. "Another View Of The J-Curve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(02), pages 153-174, April.
    2. Kevin J. Fox & R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che, 2003. "Productivity and capacity reduction: the case of a fishery," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec03-2, International and Development Economics.
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Verhaltener Aufschwung in Euroland," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3215, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    4. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugman’s intuition on the J-curve," CORE Discussion Papers 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. Kevin J. Fox & R. Quentin Grafton & Tom Kompas & Tuong Nhu Che, 2003. "Capacity Reduction and Productivity: The Case of Fishery," Economics and Environment Network Working Papers 0303, Australian National University, Economics and Environment Network.
    6. Fox, Kevin J. & Grafton, R. Quentin & Kirkley, James & Squires, Dale, 2003. "Property rights in a fishery: regulatory change and firm performance," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 156-177, July.
    7. Kevin J Fox, 2005. "Returns to Scale, Technical Progress and Total Factor Productivity Growth in New Zealand Industries," Treasury Working Paper Series 05/04, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Fox, Kevin J. & Grafton, R. Quentin & Kompas, Tom & Che, Tuong Nhu, 2006. "Capacity reduction, quota trading and productivity: the case of a fishery," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 50(2), June.
    9. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Moderate upswing in Euroland," Kiel Discussion Papers 410, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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