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Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach


  • Henry, Olan T
  • Olekalns, Nilss
  • Summers, Peter M


We fit a two-regime threshold autoregressive model to a trade weighted index of the Australian real exchange rate. We find strong evidence of a threshold in the real exchange rate, with the data being classified into two regimes. The timing of the first regime is consistent with events that would be expected to have led to pressure on the Australian exchange rate. However, there is no evidence to suggest that the Asian economic crisis led to the real exchange rate entering this regime. Copyright 2001 by The Economic Society of Australia.

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  • Henry, Olan T & Olekalns, Nilss & Summers, Peter M, 2001. "Exchange Rate Instability: A Threshold Autoregressive Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 160-166, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:77:y:2001:i:237:p:160-66

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
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    6. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Tro Kortian & James O’Regan, 1996. "Australian Financial Market Volatility: An Exploration of Cross-country and Cross-market Linkages," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9609, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Stephen Grenville, 1996. "Recent Developments in Monetary Policy: Australia and Abroad," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(1), pages 29-39.
    9. Gordon de Brouwer & John Romalis, 1996. "External Influences on Output: An Industry Analysis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9612, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Philip Lowe, 1995. "The Link between the Cash Rate and Market Interest Rates," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9504, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Nicolas de Roos & Bill Russell, 1996. "Towards an Understanding of Australia’s Co-movement with Foreign Business Cycles," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9607, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2008. "An overview on various ways of bootstrap methods," MPRA Paper 7163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mubariz Hasanov, 2012. "Re-examining Purchasing Power Parity for the Australian Real Exchange Rate," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20124, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    3. Paulo Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2015. "Modeling and forecasting interval time series with threshold models," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, March.
    4. Henry, O.T. & Summers, P.M., 2000. "Australian Economic Growth: Non-Linearities and Internaitonal Influences," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 738, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Chong, Terence Tai Leung & Yan, Isabel K., 2014. "Estimating and Testing Threshold Regression Models with Multiple Threshold Variables," MPRA Paper 54732, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Venus Khim-sen Liew & Terence Tai- leung Chong, 2003. "Effects of STAR and TAR types nonlinearities on order selection criteria," Econometrics 0307005, EconWPA.
    7. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Nazarii Salish, 2011. "Modeling and Forecasting Interval Time Series with Threshold Models: An Application to S&P500 Index Returns," Working Papers w201128, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    9. Henry, Olan T. & Olekalns, Nilss, 2002. "Does the Australian dollar real exchange rate display mean reversion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 651-666, October.
    10. Adrian Pagan, 2002. "Learning About Models and Their Fit to Data," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18.

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