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It's the Economy Stupid: Macroeconomics and Federal Elections in Australia

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  • Cameron, Lisa
  • Crosby, Mark

Abstract

In this paper we examine the impact of macroeconomic conditions on Federal electoral performance in 20th-century Australia. We find that the electorate penalizes a government for high inflation and high unemployment relative to trend. Real GDP growth and real wage growth were not found to have a systematic relationship with incumbent vote share at the Federal level. We also examine the voteshare of the Federal incumbent in three electorates: the safe Liberal seat of Kooyong, the safe Labor seat of Melbourne Ports, and the swinging seat of Latrobe. We find some evidence that unemployment affects electoral outcomes in the swinging seat, but no macroeconomic variables affect outcomes in the safe seats. Copyright 2000 by The Economic Society of Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Cameron, Lisa & Crosby, Mark, 2000. "It's the Economy Stupid: Macroeconomics and Federal Elections in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 354-364, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:76:y:2000:i:235:p:354-64
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    Cited by:

    1. Levernier, William & Barilla, Anthony G., 2006. "The Effect of Region, Demographics, and Economic Characteristics on County-Level Voting Patterns in the 2000 Presidential Election," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 36(3), pages 427-447.
    2. Andrew Leigh & Justin Wolfers, 2006. "Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(258), pages 325-340, September.

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