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Optimal Hedging under Forward-Looking Behaviour

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  • Lence, Sergio H
  • Hayes, Dermot J

Abstract

This study focuses on the production and hedging behavior of forward-looking, risk-averse competitive firms. It is shown that there is separation between production and hedging. Optimal production for a forward-looking firm is identical to that of an otherwise equivalent myopic firm. However, the optimal forward-looking hedge differs from the optimal myopic hedge. If forward prices are unbiased, full hedging is suboptimal when the firm is forward looking and output and material input prices are contemporaneously related. Furthermore, under certain conditions, the optimal forward-looking hedge under unbiased forward prices is strictly smaller than the full hedge. Copyright 1995 by The Economic Society of Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Lence, Sergio H & Hayes, Dermot J, 1995. "Optimal Hedging under Forward-Looking Behaviour," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(215), pages 329-342, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:71:y:1995:i:215:p:329-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Diewert, W E, 1971. "An Application of the Shephard Duality Theorem: A Generalized Leontief Production Function," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 481-507, May-June.
    2. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1980. " Hedging and Joint Production: Theory and Illustrations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 487-498, May.
    3. Honda, Yuzo, 1983. "Production uncertainty and the input decision of the competitive firm facing the futures market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 87-92.
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    5. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Cumby, Robert E & Figlewski, Stephen, 1988. "Estimation of the Optimal Futures Hedge," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 623-630, November.
    6. Robert J. Myers & Stanley R. Thompson, 1989. "Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(4), pages 858-868.
    7. Hey, John D, 1987. "The Dynamic Competitive Firm under Spot Price Uncertainty," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 55(1), pages 1-12, March.
    8. Roger W. Gray, 1961. "The Search for a Risk Premium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69, pages 250-250.
    9. Jacob Paroush & Avner Wolf, 1989. "Production and hedging decisions in the presence of basis risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(6), pages 547-563, December.
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    11. Dwight Grant, 1985. "Theory of the Firm with Joint Price and Output Risk and a Forward Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(3), pages 630-635.
    12. Simon Benninga & Rafael Eldor & Itzhak Zilcha, 1984. "The optimal hedge ratio in unbiased futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 155-159, June.
    13. Larry Martin & Philip Garcia, 1981. "The Price-Forecasting Performance of Futures Markets for Live Cattle and Hogs: A Disaggregated Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(2), pages 209-215.
    14. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    15. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D., 1982. "Hedging And Production Decisions Under A Linear Mean-Variance Preference Function," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 7(01), July.
    16. Frances Antonovitz & Terry Roe, 1986. "Effects of expected cash and futures prices on hedging and production," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 187-205, June.
    17. Losq, Etienne, 1982. "Hedging with price and output uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 65-70.
    18. Ronald W. Anderson & Jean-Pierre Danthine, 1983. "The Time Pattern of Hedging and the Volatility of Futures Prices," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(2), pages 249-266.
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    Cited by:

    1. Garcia, Philip & Nelson, Carl H., 2003. "Engaging Students In Research: The Use Of Structured Professional Dialogue," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 21894, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Wong, Kit Pong, 2006. "The effects of abandonment options on operating leverage and forward hedging," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 72-86.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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