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Predicting the Quality of an Unborn Grange


  • Byron, R P
  • Ashenfelter, Orley


In a recent paper, O. Ashenfelter, D. Ashmore, and R. Lalonde (1993) found they could explain the variation in the price (and quality) of Bordeaux vintages by a combination of age, temperature, and rainfall. The same ideas are applied here to Grange hermitage, Australia's premier wine. Weather variation is less important than in Bordeaux. However, some remarkably robust results are obtained: a 'quality index' for Grange is derived, predictions about still unreleased vintages are made, the Australian regression coefficients work well in the Bordeaux equation, and issues relating to market efficiency in the pricing of young wines are examined. Copyright 1995 by The Economic Society of Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Byron, R P & Ashenfelter, Orley, 1995. "Predicting the Quality of an Unborn Grange," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(212), pages 40-53, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:71:y:1995:i:212:p:40-53

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Arthur Grimes & Jason Wong, 1992. "The role of the exchange rate in New Zealand monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 176-197.
    2. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
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    4. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. David Gruen & Geoffrey Shuetrim, 1994. "Internationalisation and the Macroeconomy," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Philip Lowe & Jacqueline Dwyer (ed.), International Intergration of the Australian Economy Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Gruen, David W R & Wilkinson, Jenny, 1994. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate--Is It Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 204-219, June.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    9. Andreas Fischer, 1993. "Inflation Targeting: The New Zealand and Canadian Cases," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 13(1), pages 1-27, Spring/Su.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loureiro, Maria L., 2003. "Rethinking new wines: implications of local and environmentally friendly labels," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 547-560.
    2. Benjamin J. Burton & Joyce P. Jacobsen, 1999. "Measuring Returns on Investments in Collectibles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 193-212, Fall.
    3. Goodhue, Rachael E. & LaFrance, Jeffrey T. & Simon, Leo K., 2009. "Wine Taxes, Production, Aging and Quality," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(01), pages 27-45, March.
    4. Evens Salies & Bodo Steiner, 2011. "Have policy distortions spilled over across wine markets? Evidence from the French wine sector," Sciences Po publications 2011-16, Sciences Po.
    5. Grégoire Croidieu & Charles-Clemens Ruling & Bilal-Ahmed Jathol, 2017. "Complex field-positions and non-imitation: Pioneers, strangers, and insulars in Australian fine-wine," Grenoble Ecole de Management (Post-Print) hal-01609429, HAL.
    6. Brooks, Eileen, 2003. "Products and Prejudice: Measuring Country-of-Origin Bias in U.S. Wine Imports," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8sv3q6qv, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hi64o4ks9 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ashenfelter, Orley, 2017. "The Hedonic Approach to Vineyard Site Selection: Adaptation to Climate Change and Grape Growing in Emerging Markets," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 3-15, February.
    9. Pavese, Piermassimo & Zanola, Roberto, 2008. "Autochthon vs. blended wines: Do objective and sensory characteristics matter?," POLIS Working Papers 107, Institute of Public Policy and Public Choice - POLIS.
    10. Orley Ashenfelter & Karl Storchmann, 2010. "Measuring the Economic Effect of Global Warming on Viticulture Using Auction, Retail, and Wholesale Prices," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 37(1), pages 51-64, August.
    11. Steiner, Bodo E., 2009. "The Extent and Nature of Contracting in the Wine Supply-Chain When Moral Hazard is Present," Staff Paper Series 154127, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
    12. Ashenfelter, Orley & Storchmann, Karl, 2014. "Wine and Climate Change," Working Papers 164854, American Association of Wine Economists.
    13. Brooks, Eileen, 2003. "Products and Prejudice: Measuring Country-of-Origin Bias in U.S. Wine Imports," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt8sv3q6qv, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    14. Brooks, Eileen, 2003. "Products and Prejudice: Measuring Country-of-Origin Bias in U.S. Wine Imports," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt59m9341j, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    15. Egon Franck & Martin Kukuk & Stefan Winter, 2004. "Weininvestment- Profitieren Anleger von der Berücksichtigung öffentlich zugänglicher Informationen?," Working Papers 0030, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU).
    16. Fogarty, James Joseph, 2007. "Rethinking Wine Investment in the UK and Australia," Working Papers 37312, American Association of Wine Economists.
    17. Aytaç, Beysül & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Mandou, Cyrille, 2016. "Wine: To drink or invest in? A study of wine as an investment asset in French portfolios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 591-614.
    18. James J. Fogarty, 2002. "Why is Expert Opinion on Wine Valueless?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 02-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    19. Schamel, Guenter & Anderson, Kym, 2001. "Wine Quality and Regional Reputation: Hedonic Prices for Australia and New Zealand," 2001 Conference (45th), January 23-25, 2001, Adelaide 125877, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    20. Wood, Danielle & Anderson, Kym, 2006. "What Determines the Future Value of an Icon Wine? New Evidence from Australia," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 141-161, September.
    21. Fiebig, Denzil G. & Uldry, Pierre-Francois, 1999. "Sensitivity bounds for use with flawed data," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 479-486.
    22. Croidieu, Grégoire & Rüling, Charles-Clemens & Boutinot, Amélie, 2016. "How do creative genres emerge? The case of the Australian wine industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 2334-2342.
    23. Masset, Philippe & Weisskopf, Jean-Philippe & Faye, Benoît & Le Fur, Eric, 2016. "Red obsession: The ascent of fine wine in China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-225.

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