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Primary Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade


  • Sapsford, David


This paper provides a survey of a range of issues involved in the analysis of primary commodity prices and the terms of trade. Particular emphasis is placed upon the long-run behavior of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures, and the paper presents some new evidence regarding the long-run behavior of Australia's terms of trade. Copyright 1990 by The Economic Society of Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Sapsford, David, 1990. "Primary Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(195), pages 342-356, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:66:y:1990:i:195:p:342-56

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
    2. Phillips, P.C.B., 1989. "Partially Identified Econometric Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 181-240, August.
    3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    4. Hendry, David F, 1985. "Monetary Economic Myth and Econometric Reality," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 72-84, Spring.
    5. Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1980. "An Empirical Application and Monte Carlo Analysis of Tests of Dynamic Specification," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 21-45.
    6. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 468-497, December.
    7. Truman F. Bewley, 1986. "Knightian Decision Theory: Part 1," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 807, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Phillips, Peter C B & Park, Joon Y, 1988. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests of Nonlinear Restrictions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1065-1083, September.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    11. Hendry, David F, 1980. "Econometrics-Alchemy or Science?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 47(188), pages 387-406, November.
    12. Phillips, P.C.B., 1983. "Exact small sample theory in the simultaneous equations model," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 449-516 Elsevier.
    13. McAleer, Michael & Pagan, Adrian R & Volker, Paul A, 1985. "What Will Take the Con out of Econometrics?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 293-307, June.
    14. Hendry, David F. & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1982. "On the formulation of empirical models in dynamic econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-33, October.
    15. E. Ray Canterbery, 1984. "Introduction," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(1), pages 4-6, October.
    16. Truman F. Bewley, 1988. "Knightian Decision Theory and Econometric Inference," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 868, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    17. Hall, Anthony David & Pagan, Adrian Rodney, 1981. "The LIML and Related Estimators of an Equation with Moving Average Disturbances," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(3), pages 719-730, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jörg Mayer, 2002. "The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of the Literature," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 875-894, June.
    2. Christian Gillitzer & Jonathan Kearns, 2005. "Long-term Patterns in Australia’s Terms of Trade," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2005-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah, 2003. "Exports and Economic Growth in Namibia, 1968-1992," Development and Comp Systems 0307004, EconWPA.
    4. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "North-South terms of trade: an empirical investigation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. David Sapsford & John-ren Chen, 1999. "The Prebisch-Singer thesis: a thesis for the new millennium? Introduction," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 843-849.

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