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Modelling the Determinants of Trans-Tasman Migration after World War II

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  • Brosnan, Peter
  • Poot, Jacques

Abstract

This paper identifies the economic and demographic factors responsible for migration flows between Australia and New Zealand by means of a probabilistic model of emigration in both directions. The cost of migration (proxied by t he real cost of air travel), labor market conditions, and the potenti al earnings differential play a role, although the results are modifi ed by the incidence of return migration and age composition. Copyright 1987 by The Economic Society of Australia.

Suggested Citation

  • Brosnan, Peter & Poot, Jacques, 1987. "Modelling the Determinants of Trans-Tasman Migration after World War II," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 63(183), pages 313-329, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:63:y:1987:i:183:p:313-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2003. "UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, pages 353-370.
    2. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002. "The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, November.
    3. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "The quest for prosperity without inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 633-663, April.
    5. Sargent, Thomas J, 1971. "A Note on the 'Accelerationist' Controversy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 721-725, August.
    6. Hirose, Yasuo & Kamada, Koichiro, 2003. "A New Technique for Simultaneous Estimation of Potential Output and the Phillips Curve," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 93-112, August.
    7. David Gruen & Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2002. "Output Gaps in Real Time: Are They Reliable Enough to Use for Monetary Policy?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2002-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone & Marileze van Zyl, 2003. "The Real-time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Pitchford, John, 2000. "The Steady Inflation Rate of Economic Growth," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 386-400, December.
    10. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
    11. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Özer Karagedikli & Ryan, Michael & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Productivity Commission, 2009. "Review of Mutual Recognition Schemes," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 32.
    3. Bruder, Jana, 2003. "East-West Migration in Europe, 2004 - 2015," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 40, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    4. Winkelmann, Rainer, 2000. "Immigration Policies and their Impact: The Case of New Zealand and Australia," IZA Discussion Papers 169, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Karagedikli, Özer & Ryan, Michael & Steenkamp, Daan & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2016. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks on the New Zealand economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 945-959.
    6. Hayden Glass & Wai Kin Choy, 2001. "Brain Drain or Brain Exchange?," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/22, New Zealand Treasury.
    7. Gani, Azmat & Ward, Bert D., 1995. "Migration of professionals from Fiji to New Zealand: A reduced form supply-demand model," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1633-1637, September.
    8. Susi Gorbey & Doug James & Jacques Poot, 1999. "Population Forecasting with Endogenous Migration: An Application to Trans-Tasman Migration," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 69-101, April.
    9. Ozer Karagedikli & Michael Ryan & Daan Steenkamp & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? The sectoral effects of the exchange rate shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-73, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Peter Bushnell & Wai Kin Choy, 2001. ""Go West, Young Man, Go West!"?," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    11. Winkelmann, Rainer, 1999. "Immigration: The New Zealand Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 61, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    12. Jacques Poot, 2009. "Trans-Tasman Migration, Transnationalism and Economic Development in Australasia," Working Papers 09_05, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

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