Elections And Exchange Rate Policy Cycles
This paper presents a theoretical model based on the distributive effects of real exchange rate (RER) changes that generates RER electoral cycles of the type identified in Latin American countries: more appreciated RER before elections and more depreciated after elections. Typically, a RER depreciation favors exporters and import-competing domestic industries, to the detriment of consumers. These RER cycles are generated by imperfect information on policy-makers' preferences, which are concealed from voters with the help of an unstable macroeconomic environment. Exchange rate cycles result from the interplay between the electoral power of the non-tradable sector and the tradable sector's ability to lobby the government. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2005.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 17 (2005)
Issue (Month): (07)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0954-1985|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0954-1985|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina T., 1999.
"The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
341, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Marco Bonomo & Maria Cristina Terra, 1998. "The political economy of exchange rate policy in Brazil, 1964-1997," Textos para discussão 395, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997," Research Department Publications 3065, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Laura Alfaro, 1999. "Why governments implement Temporary Stabilization Programs," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 211-245, November.
- Kenneth Rogoff & Anne Sibert, 1986.
"Elections and Macroeconomic Policy Cycles,"
NBER Working Papers
1838, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1997.
"Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies,"
CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo.
123, Universidad del CEMA.
- Stein, Ernesto H. & Streb, Jorge M., 1998. "Political stabilization cycles in high-inflation economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 159-180, June.
- Ernesto H. Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 1995. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6857, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Ernesto Stein and Jorge Streb., 1994. "Political Stabilization Cycles in High Inflation Economies," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-039, University of California at Berkeley.
- Moritz Kraemer, 1997. "Electoral Budget Cycles in Latin America and the Caribbean: Incidence, Causes, and Political Futility," Research Department Publications 4084, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Block, Steven A., 2002. "Political business cycles, democratization, and economic reform: the case of Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 205-228, February.
- Bonomo, Marco Antonio Cesar & Terra, Maria Cristina Trindade, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: an Empirical Assessment," Revista Brasileira de Economia, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 53(4), October.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-party System as a Repeated Game," Scholarly Articles 4552531, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Piero Ghezzi & Ernesto Stein & Jorge M. Streb, 2000.
"Real exchange rate cycles around elections,"
CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo.
174, Universidad del CEMA.
- Lindbeck, Assar, 1976. "Stabilization Policy in Open Economies with Endogenous Politicians," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(2), pages 1-19, May.
- Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
- Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Positive Theory of Discretionary Policy, the Cost of Democratic Government and the Benefits of a Constitution," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(3), pages 367-88, July.
- repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:53:n:4:a:1 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:idb:brikps:77398 is not listed on IDEAS
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990.
"Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Alesina, Alberto, 1987. "Macroeconomic Policy in a Two-Party System as a Repeated Game," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(3), pages 651-78, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:17:y:2005:i::p:151-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.