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Is the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship Nonlinear? An Empirical Analysis for the Netherlands

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  • Hong Bo
  • Robert Lensin

Abstract

We examine the investment-uncertainty relationship for a panel of Dutch non-financial firms. The system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimates suggest that the effect of uncertainty on investment is nonlinear: for low levels of uncertainty an increase in uncertainty has a positive effect on investment, while for high levels of uncertainty an increase in uncertainty lowers investment. This result is in line with a number of theoretical studies, but has never been documented empirically. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2005.

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  • Hong Bo & Robert Lensin, 2005. "Is the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship Nonlinear? An Empirical Analysis for the Netherlands," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(286), pages 307-331, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:72:y:2005:i:286:p:307-331
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    Cited by:

    1. T Heikkinen & K Pietola, 2006. "Rural Investment and the Cost of Income Uncertainty," ERSA conference papers ersa06p51, European Regional Science Association.
    2. Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Liyan Han & Boyan Liu, 2012. "The effects of uncertainty and corporate governance on firms’ demand for liquidity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 515-525, February.
    3. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2010. "The response of firms' leverage to uncertainty: Evidence from UK public versus non-public firms," Working Papers 2010019, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    4. Caglayan, Mustafa & Maioli, Sara & Mateut, Simona, 2012. "Inventories, sales uncertainty, and financial strength," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2512-2521.
    5. Mustafa Caglayan & Sara Maioli & Simona Mateut, "undated". "Inventories and sales uncertainty," Discussion Papers 11/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Gryglewicz, Sebastian & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2008. "Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 2191-2213, July.
    7. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Firm Leverage," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 443, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 833-849, September.
    9. Heikkinen, T. & Pietola, K., 2009. "Investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty: The case of diminishing expectations in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 634-646, January.
    10. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2014. "The Response Of Firms' Leverage To Risk: Evidence From Uk Public Versus Nonpublic Manufacturing Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 341-363, January.
    11. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    12. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2011. "A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Investment–Uncertainty Relationship," Chapters,in: Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 7 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Byrne, Joseph P & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Serafeim, Tsoukas, 2014. "Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-62, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    14. Sangcheol Song, 2014. "Entry mode irreversibility, host market uncertainty, and foreign subsidiary exits," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 455-471, June.
    15. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "The Effects Of Uncertainty On The Leverage Of Nonfinancial Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 216-225, April.
    16. Christopher F. Baum & Dorothea Schäfer & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "The Effects of Industry-Level Uncertainty on Cash Holdings: The Case of Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 638, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Byrne, Joseph P & Spaliara, Marina-Eliza & Serafeim, Tsoukas, 2015. "Firm survival, uncertainty and financial frictions: Is there a financial uncertainty accelerator?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-68, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Joseph P. Byrne & Marina-Eliza Spaliara & Serafeim Tsoukas, 2016. "Firm Survival, Uncertainty, And Financial Frictions: Is There A Financial Uncertainty Accelerator?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 375-390, January.

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