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Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?

  • Mark P. Taylor

I examine the effectiveness of exchange rate intervention within the context of a Markov-switching model for the real exchange rate. The probability of switching between stable and unstable regimes depends nonlinearly upon the amount of intervention, the degree of misalignment and the duration of the regime. Applying this to dollar-mark data for the period 1985-98, I find that intervention increases the probability of stability when the rate is misaligned, and that its influence grows with the degree of misalignment. However, intervention within a small neighbourhood of equilibrium will result in a greater probability of instability. Copyright (c) The London School of Economics and Political Science 2004.

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Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 71 (2004)
Issue (Month): (02)
Pages: 1-11

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:71:y:2004:i::p:1-11
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  1. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  2. J. Michael Durland & Thomas H. McCurdy, 1993. "Duration Dependent Transitions in a Markov Model of U.S. GNP Growth," Working Papers 887, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  5. Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Kathryn Dominguez & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1990. "Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 16, January.
  7. Levin, Jay H, 1997. "Chartists, Fundamentalists and Exchange Rate Dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 281-90, October.
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Vigfusson, R., 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Staff Working Papers 96-1, Bank of Canada.
  11. Allen, Helen & Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "Charts, Noise and Fundamentals in the London Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 49-59, Supplemen.
  12. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06.
  13. Francis X. Diebold & Joon-Haeng Lee & Gretchen C. Weinbach, 1993. "Regime switching with time-varying transition probabilities," Working Papers 93-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  14. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Maria-Teresa Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Jerry Coakley, 2001. "Numerical Issues in Threshold Autoregressive Modelling of Time Series," Working Papers wp01-09, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  16. Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1998. "Modelling Business Cycle Nonlinearity in Conditional Mean and Conditional Variance: Some International and Sectoral Evidence," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(258), pages 211-29, May.
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  18. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2001. "A Non-linear Analysis of Excess Foreign Exchange Returns," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(6), pages 623-42, December.
  19. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  20. Dominguez, Kathryn M & Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1993. "Does Foreign-Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1356-69, December.
  21. Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1995. "The Limits of Arbitrage," NBER Working Papers 5167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Peel, David A & Speight, Alan E H, 1997. "Non-linearities in East European Black-Market Exchange Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 39-57, January.
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  24. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  25. McQueen, Grant & Thorley, Steven, 1994. "Bubbles, Stock Returns, and Duration Dependence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 379-401, September.
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  27. Taylor, Mark P, 1997. "Special Issue on Technical Analysis and Financial Markets: Editor's Introduction," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 263-66, October.
  28. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-18, October.
  29. Maheu, John M & McCurdy, Thomas H, 2000. "Identifying Bull and Bear Markets in Stock Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 100-112, January.
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