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Road Accidents and Traffic Flows: An Econometric Investigation

  • Dickerson, Andrew
  • Peirson, John
  • Vickerman, Roger

This paper develops an empirical model of the relationship between road traffic accidents and traffic flows. The analysis focuses on the accident externality, which is determined mainly by the difference between the marginal and average risks. The model is estimated using a new data-set which combines hourly London traffic count data from automated vehicle recorders together with police records of road accidents. The accident-flow relationship is seen to vary considerably between different road classes and geographical areas. More importantly, even having controlled for these and other differences, the accident externality is shown to vary significantly with traffic flows. In particular, while the accident externality is typically close to zero for low to moderate traffic flows, it increases substantially at high traffic flows. Copyright 2000 by The London School of Economics and Political Science

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Article provided by London School of Economics and Political Science in its journal Economica.

Volume (Year): 67 (2000)
Issue (Month): 265 (February)
Pages: 101-21

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Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:67:y:2000:i:265:p:101-21
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  1. Newbery, David M, 1987. "Road User Charges in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(390), pages 161-76, Supplemen.
  2. Jong-Il Kim & Lawrence J. Lau, 1996. "The sources of Asian Pacific economic growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 448-54, April.
  3. Jones-Lee, M W & Hammerton, M & Philips, P R, 1985. "The Value of Safety: Results of a National Sample Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(377), pages 49-72, March.
  4. Jones-Lee, M W, 1990. "The Value of Transport Safety," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 39-60, Summer.
  5. John Peirson & Ian Skinner & Roger Vickerman, 1996. "The Microeconomic Analysis of the External Costs of Road Accidents," Studies in Economics 9606, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  6. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
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