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The Classic European Hyperinflations Revisited: Testing the Cagan Model Using a Cointegrated VAR Approach

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  • Engsted, Tom

Abstract

The Cagan model of hyperinflation under rational expectations, no bubbles and stationary velocity shocks has the implication that real balances cointegrate with money growth. In a reexamination of the classic European hyperinflations, I find support for this cointegrating property, which gives evidence against the assumption made in most previous studies that velocity shocks follow a random walk. Based on a cointegrated VAR model, I reject statistically, for four of the six hyperinflations, the exact rational expectations Cagan model; but at the same time I find evidence of a substantial forward-looking element in agents' demand for real balances, in the sense that a large part of the predictable movement in money growth is incorporated in agents' demand for money. Copyright 1994 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

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  • Engsted, Tom, 1994. "The Classic European Hyperinflations Revisited: Testing the Cagan Model Using a Cointegrated VAR Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(243), pages 331-343, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:61:y:1994:i:243:p:331-43
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    Cited by:

    1. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    2. Mladenovic, Zorica & Petrovic, Pavle, 2010. "Cagan's paradox and money demand in hyperinflation: Revisited at daily frequency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1369-1384, November.
    3. Pavle Petrović & Zorica Mladenović, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Frequency of Price Adjustment across Different Inflation Regimes," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 409-427, September.
    4. Topal, yavuz Han, 2013. "On the tracks of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation: A Quantitative Investigation," MPRA Paper 56117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai-Yin, 2003. "An empirical investigation of price and exchange rate bubbles during the interwar European hyperinflations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 327-344.
    6. Engsted, Tom, 2002. " Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-355, July.
    7. Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The monetary model of the exchange rate under hyperinflation: New encouraging evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 37-44, April.
    8. Engsted, Tom, 2003. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: comment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 441-451, August.
    9. Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
    10. Dimitris Georgoutsos & Georgios Kouretas, 2004. "A Multivariate I(2) cointegration analysis of German hyperinflation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 29-41.
    11. Petrovic, Pavle & Vujosevic, Zorica, 1996. "The monetary dynamics in the Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1991-1993: The Cagan money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 467-483, November.
    12. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
    13. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.

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