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Information, Prices and Efficiency in a Fixed-Odds Betting Market

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  • Pope, Peter F
  • Peel, David A

Abstract

This paper examines the efficiency of the Association Football betting market in the United Kingdom. The notable features of this market are that the odds are fixed some time before matches occur and differ between bookmaking firms. While there is some evidence of ex post inefficiency, there does not appear to be profitable betting strategies that could have been implemented ex ante during the sample period. Copyright 1989 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

Suggested Citation

  • Pope, Peter F & Peel, David A, 1989. "Information, Prices and Efficiency in a Fixed-Odds Betting Market," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(223), pages 323-341, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:56:y:1989:i:223:p:323-41
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    Cited by:

    1. Jinook Jeong & Jee Young Kim & Yoon Jae Ro, 2017. "On the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Market: A New Test for the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Working papers 2017rwp-106, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    2. Maschke Mario & Schmidt Ulrich, 2011. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status quo und Reformansätze," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 110-124, April.
    3. Flepp, Raphael & Nüesch, Stephan & Franck, Egon, 2017. "The liquidity advantage of the quote-driven market: Evidence from the betting industry," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 306-317.
    4. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
      • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
    5. Masahiro Ashiya, 2015. "Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(3), pages 322-330, April.
    6. Alexis Direr, 2013. "Are betting markets efficient? Evidence from European Football Championships," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 343-356, January.
    7. Nilsson, Håkan & Andersson, Patric, 2010. "Making the seemingly impossible appear possible: Effects of conjunction fallacies in evaluations of bets on football games," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 172-180, April.
    8. Mark Burkey, 2005. "On "Arbitage" and Market Efficiency: An Examination of NFL Wagering," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), vol. 36(1), pages 13-28.
    9. Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2003. "Persistence in sequences of football match results: A Monte Carlo analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 247-256, July.
    10. Bruce, A.C. & Johnson, J.E.V. & Peirson, J., 2012. "Recreational versus professional bettors: Performance differences and efficiency implications," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 172-174.
    11. Jakobsson, Robin & Karlsson, Niklas, 2007. "Testing Market Efficiency in a Fixed Odds Betting Market," Working Papers 2007:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
    12. Niermann, Stefan, 2001. "Die Prognose von Spielausgängen in der Fußball-Bundesliga," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-247, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    13. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2013. "Inter-market Arbitrage in Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(318), pages 300-325, April.
    14. Caruso, Raul & Addesa, Francesco & Di Domizio, Marco, 2016. "The Determinants Of The TV Demand Of Soccer: Empirical Evidence On Italian Serie A For The Period 2008-2015," MPRA Paper 70189, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Frank Daumann & Markus Breuer, 2011. "The Role of Information in Professional Football and the German Football Betting Market," Chapters,in: Contemporary Issues in Sports Economics, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
    17. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
    18. Leitner, Christoph & Zeileis, Achim & Hornik, Kurt, 2010. "Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROÂ 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 471-481, July.
    19. Forrest, David & Simmons, Robert, 2000. "Forecasting sport: the behaviour and performance of football tipsters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-331.

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