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Patents and R&D as Real Options

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  • Eduardo S. Schwartz

Abstract

This article develops and implements a simulation approach to value patents and patent-protected R&D projects based on the Real Options approach. It takes into account uncertainty in the cost-to-completion of the project, uncertainty in the cash flows to be generated from the project, and the possibility of catastrophic events that could put an end to the effort before it is completed. It also allows for the possibility of abandoning the project when costs turn out to be larger than expected or when estimated cash flows turn out to be smaller than anticipated. This abandonment option represents a very substantial part of the project's value when the project is marginal or|and when uncertainty is large. The model presented can be used to evaluate the effects of regulation on the cost of innovation and the amount on innovative output. The main focus of the article is the pharmaceutical industry. The framework, however, applies just as well to other research-intensive industries such as software or hardware development. Copyright Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2004. "Patents and R&D as Real Options," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 33(1), pages 23-54, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:33:y:2004:i:1:p:23-54
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    Cited by:

    1. Di Corato, Luca & Moretto, Michele, 2016. "Selling real assets: the impact of idiosyncratic project risk in an auction environment," Working Paper Series 2016:9, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    2. Zhang, Xian & Wang, Xingwei & Chen, Jiajun & Xie, Xi & Wang, Ke & Wei, Yiming, 2014. "A novel modeling based real option approach for CCS investment evaluation under multiple uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1059-1067.
    3. Scandizzo, Pasquale L. & Ventura, Marco, 2010. "Sharing risk through concession contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 363-370, November.
    4. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:4:p:993-:d:138433 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Arasteh, Abdollah, 2017. "Considering the investment decisions with real options games approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1282-1294.
    6. Signore, Simone & Torfs, Wouter, 2017. "The European venture capital landscape: an EIF perspective. Volume IV: The value of innovation for EIF-backed startups," EIF Working Paper Series 2017/45, European Investment Fund (EIF).
    7. Engelen, Peter-Jan & Kool, Clemens & Li, Ye, 2016. "A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 33-56.
    8. Szolgayová, Jana & Golub, Alexander & Fuss, Sabine, 2014. "Innovation and risk-averse firms: Options on carbon allowances as a hedging tool," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 227-235.
    9. repec:eee:appene:v:210:y:2018:i:c:p:241-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Pennings, Enrico & Sereno, Luigi, 2011. "Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 374-385, July.
    11. Jain, Shashi & Roelofs, Ferry & Oosterlee, Cornelis W., 2014. "Decision-support tool for assessing future nuclear reactor generation portfolios," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 99-112.
    12. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Modelling the investment in carbon capture retrofits of pulverized coal-fired plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 66-75.
    13. Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2011. "A real options–based CCS investment evaluation model: Case study of China’s power generation sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(12), pages 4320-4333.
    14. Whalley, A. Elizabeth, 2011. "Optimal R&D investment for a risk-averse entrepreneur," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 413-429, April.
    15. Joseph Golec, 2007. "Commentary," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4-5), pages 353-355.
    16. Angel Leon & Diego Piñeiro, 2004. "Valuation Of A Biotech Company: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers wp2004_0420, CEMFI.
    17. Raffaele Oriani & Luigi Sereno, 2011. "Advanced Valuation Methods: The Real Options Approach," Chapters,in: The Economic Valuation of Patents, chapter 6 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Eduardo Schwartz, 2013. "The Real Options Approach to Valuation: Challenges and Opportunities," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 50(2), pages 163-177, November.
    19. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2015. "Real option valuation of power transmission investments by stochastic simulation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 215-226.
    20. S. Alonso & V. Azofra & G. De La Fuente, 2014. "What do you do when the binomial cannot value real options? The LSM model," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 1-17, December.

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