IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

How Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?

  • Lei Lei Song
  • John Freebairn

This article evaluates the effects of budget consolidation on the Australian economy in the 1990s. As the economy recovered from the 1991-92 recession, the need to improve the fiscal balance to lift national saving became the dominant influence on fiscal policy. The article argues that spending cuts by the Australian federal government announced in 1996 had immediate effects on financial markets, with reduced long-term interest rates of about 50 basis points in 1996-97. Using a modified version of the Treasury macroeconometric model of the Australian economy (TRYM), the article simulates the net macroeconomic effects of the expenditure cuts, fiscal consolidation and lower long-term interest rates. The article finds that the program of budget consolidation had a sizeable short- and medium-term impact on the economy, raising Gross Domestic Product by up to three-quarters of a percentage point and reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over the next two to three years. Copyright 2006 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research in its journal Australian Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 35-46

in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:35-46
Contact details of provider: Postal: The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010
Phone: +61 3 8344 2100
Fax: +61 3 8344 2111
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Otto, Glenn & Voss, Graham M, 1994. "Public Capital and Private Sector Productivity," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(209), pages 121-32, June.
  2. Gruen, David & Pagan, Adrian & Thompson, Christopher, 1999. "The Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 223-258, October.
  3. Summers, Peter M., 2001. "Forecasting Australia's economic performance during the Asian crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 499-515.
  4. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  6. Lye, J N & McDonald, I M & Sibly, H, 2001. "An Estimate of the Range of Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(236), pages 35-50, March.
  7. Aschauer, David Alan, 1989. "Is public expenditure productive?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-200, March.
  8. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669 Elsevier.
  9. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  10. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear RationalExpectations Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. A. J. Hagger & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2003. "Time to Ditch the Natural Rate?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(246), pages 324-335, 09.
  12. Douglas W. Elmendorf, 1996. "The effects of deficit-reduction laws on real interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Meredith Beechey & Nargis Bharucha & Adam Cagliarini & David Gruen & Christopher Thompson, 2000. "A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  14. Nilss Olekalns, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Current Fiscal Policy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 31(1), pages 66-72.
  15. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
  16. Martin Mühleisen & Christopher M. Towe, 2004. "U.S. Fiscal Policies and Priorities for Long-Run Sustainability," IMF Occasional Papers 227, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Lewis, Philip E T & MacDonald, Garry, 2002. "The Elasticity of Demand for Labour in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 78(240), pages 18-30, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:39:y:2006:i:1:p:35-46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.