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Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand

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  • John Creedy
  • Grant M. Scobie

Abstract

As the population ages there will be potentially significant implications for a wide range of economic variables, including in particular the fiscal costs of social expenditures. Long-term fiscal planning requires estimates of the possible future path of public spending. This article presents projections for 14 categories of social spending. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of gross domestic product using simulation. Attention is focused on health expenditures which are disaggregated into seven broad classes. In addition, we explore the impacts of alternative hypotheses about future health costs. While it can be predicted with some confidence that overall social expenditures will rise, the results suggest that long-term planning would be enriched by recognising the distributions around point estimates of projected social costs. Copyright 2005 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

Suggested Citation

  • John Creedy & Grant M. Scobie, 2005. "Population Ageing and Social Expenditure in New Zealand," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 38(1), pages 19-39, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:38:y:2005:i:1:p:19-39
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Population ageing and the growth of income and consumption tax revenue," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 169-182, August.
    2. John Creedy & Kathleen Makale, 2014. "Social expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic projections," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 196-208, August.
    3. John Creedy & Jamas Enright & Norman Gemmell & Angela Mellish, 2010. "Population ageing and taxation in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 137-158.
    4. Christopher Ball & John Creedy, 2014. "Tax policy with uncertain future costs: Some simple models," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 240-253, August.
    5. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
    6. repec:taf:nzecpp:v:51:y:2017:i:3:p:237-261 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christopher Ball & John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2015. "Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 15/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Creedy, John & Gemmell, Norman, 2013. "Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand?," Working Paper Series 2820, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    9. Julio LÌpez DÌaz & ZenÛn J. Ridruejo, "undated". "Cambio demogr·fico, inmigraciÛn y crecimiento econÛmico," Studies on the Spanish Economy 99, FEDEA.
    10. Lixin Cai & John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb, 2006. "Accounting For Population Ageing In Tax Microsimulation Modelling By Survey Reweighting ," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 18-37, March.
    11. John Creedy & Grant Scobie, 2017. "Debt projections and fiscal sustainability with feedback effects," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 237-261, September.

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