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Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-Daily Volatility

  • Gallo, Giampiero M

In this paper we evaluate the impact that stock returns recorded between market closing and opening the next business day have on intra-daily volatility. A simple test shows that the estimated volatility clustering of the intra-daily returns may be affected by a market opening surprise bias. An extension of the standard GARCH model is suggested here to include the effect of this surprise and is applied on a sample of largely traded US stocks. The performance of two specifications in which this effect is included is evaluated in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise relative to their standard counterparts. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia

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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Australian Economic Papers.

Volume (Year): 40 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 567-80

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:40:y:2001:i:4:p:567-80
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  1. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  2. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1987. " Trading Mechanisms and Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 533-53, July.
  3. Gallo, G.M. & Pacini, B., 1998. "Early News Is Good News. The Effects of Market Opening on Market Volatility," Economics Working Papers eco98/3, European University Institute.
  4. Stoll, Hans R & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Stock Market Structure and Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 37-71.
  5. Romer, David, 1993. "Rational Asset-Price Movements without News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1112-30, December.
  6. Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," NBER Working Papers 3681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gerety, Mason S & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. "Price Formation on Stock Exchanges: The Evolution of Trading within the Day," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 609-29.
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