Modelling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-Daily Volatility
In this paper we evaluate the impact that stock returns recorded between market closing and opening the next business day have on intra-daily volatility. A simple test shows that the estimated volatility clustering of the intra-daily returns may be affected by a market opening surprise bias. An extension of the standard GARCH model is suggested here to include the effect of this surprise and is applied on a sample of largely traded US stocks. The performance of two specifications in which this effect is included is evaluated in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise relative to their standard counterparts. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University of South Australia
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Volume (Year): 40 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
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References listed on IDEAS
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