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Population Growth and Transitional Dynamics of Egypt Theoretical Analysis & Time Series Analysis from 1981 To 2007

Author

Listed:
  • Ghada Gomaa A. Mohamed

    (Faculty of Economics & Political Science; Future University in Egypt)

  • Morrison Handley Schachler

    (ECO-ENA, Inc.?, Ottawa, ON, Canada)

Abstract

This paper tests the impact of the economic growth rate on the dynamism of the economy of Egypt. In this regard the paper applies the logic of the basic exogenous growth models and empirically controls for all other demographic factors that believed in their intertwined effects on the economic growth rate. The results show an evidence of the short run effect but the impact of the population growth rate on the time path of the economic growth rate vanishes over time. The paper gives a clear indication to policy makers in Egypt to modify their public policy toward the population growth and to adopt different apparoaches for resources balance rather than damping the population growth. The paper utilizes an intervention time series model with different steps to verify the adopted theoretical model.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghada Gomaa A. Mohamed & Morrison Handley Schachler, 2017. "Population Growth and Transitional Dynamics of Egypt Theoretical Analysis & Time Series Analysis from 1981 To 2007," International Journal of Asian Social Science, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 110-118, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:asi:ijoass:2017:p:110-118
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters,in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education (3rd Edition), pages 323-350 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1990. "Population Growth and Human Capital Investments: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 38-70, October.
    3. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Krutilla, Kerry & Reuveny, Rafael, 2006. "The systems dynamics of endogenous population growth in a renewable resource-based growth model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 256-267, February.
    6. Ehrlich, Isaac & Lui, Francis, 1997. "The problem of population and growth: A review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 205-242, January.
    7. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
    8. G. Bhalachandran, 2011. "Kautilya's model of sustainable development," Humanomics: The International Journal of Systems and Ethics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 41-52, February.
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