Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Shocks in Nigeria: An Empirical Result
In this paper, we explored the J-curve effect based on Nigerian data by adopting the vector error correction methodology. The results of the study indicated a cyclical feedback between the trade balance and the real exchange rate depreciation of the Naira. However, the analysis finds no empirical evidence in favour of the short-run deterioration of the trade balance as implied by the J-curve hypothesis. Rather, what is empirically supported is the cyclical trade effect of exchange rate shocks. As it were, a real exchange rate shock will initially improve then worsen and then improve the country’s aggregate trade balance. The instant improvement in the trade balance which is correlated with real depreciation provides no support for the J-curve hypothesis in the Nigerian trade balance. Hence, the short-run predictions of the J-curve are not observable in Nigeria.
Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
Issue (Month): 7 (July)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.aessweb.com/
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2007.
"Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-through,"
NBER Working Papers
13432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jen Baggs & Eugene Beaulieu & Loretta Fung, 2009. "Firm survival, performance, and the exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 393-421, May.
- Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
- SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society.
- Feenstra, R.C. & Kendall, J.D., 1991.
"Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices,"
377, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
- Nicolas Berman & Thierry Mayer & Philippe Martin, 2009.
"How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications,"
Sciences Po publications
7493, Sciences Po.
- Berman, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry, 2009. "How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications," CEPR Discussion Papers 7493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thierry Mayer & Philippe Martin & Nicolas Berman, 2010. "How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications," 2010 Meeting Papers 1338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2009. "How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00973027, HAL.
- Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin & Thierry Mayer, 2009. "How do Different Exporters React to Exchange Rate Changes? Theory, Empirics and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2009-32, CEPII research center.
- Campa, Jose M., 2000.
"Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?,"
IESE Research Papers
D/427, IESE Business School.
- Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
- Campa, José Manuel, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Trade: How Important is Hysteresis in Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-20, June.
- Martin J. Bailey & George S. Tavlas, 1988. "Trade and Investment under Floating Rates: The U.S. Experience," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 8(2), pages 421-449, Fall.
- Daly, Kevin, 1998. "Does exchange rate volatility impede the volume of Japan's bilateral trade?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 333-348, July.
- José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
- Belanger, Denis & Gutierrez, Sylvia & Racette, Daniel & Raynauld, Jacques, 1992.
"The impact of exchange rate variability on trade flows: Further results on sectoral U.S. imports from Canada,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 61-82.
- Belanger, D. & Gutierrez, S. & Racette, D. & Raynauld, J., 1990. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability On Trade Flows: Further Results On Sectoral U.S. Imports From Canada," Papers 90-08, ECOLE DES HAUTES ETUDES COMMERCIALES (H.E.C.), MONTREAL-.
- Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
- Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2008.
"Frequency of Price Adjustment and Pass-through,"
NBER Working Papers
14200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
- Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, 02.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009.
"China's Current Account and Exchange Rate,"
NBER Working Papers
14673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," Working Papers 142009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series 2587, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007.
"Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes,"
NBER Working Papers
12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487, 05.
- Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Vikram Kumar & Joseph A. Whitt, Jr., 1992. "Exchange rate variability and international trade," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue May, pages 17-32.
- Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2013:p:948-977. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qazi Muhammad Imran)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.