IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics among the Sectoral Stock Indices: Evidence from Turkey


  • Gulin Vardar

    (Department of International Trade and Finance, Izmir University of Economics, Balcova, Izmir, Turkey)

  • Gokce Tunc

    (Department of International Trade and Finance, Izmir University of Economics, Balcova, Izmir, Turkey)

  • Berna Aydogan

    (Department of International Trade and Finance, Izmir University of Economics, Balcova, Izmir, Turkey)


This paper investigates the short-run and long-run dynamics among the major sectoral stock indices of the Istanbul Stock Exchange over the period 1997-2011. Long-run relationship among these indices is analyzed by using both conventional Engle and Granger (1987) and Johansen-Juselius (1990) cointegration tests, causal relationship through Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Likewise, variance decomposition analysis is employed to partition the variance of the forecast error of one sector index into proportions attributable to shocks in each sector index in the system including its own. The findings suggest that all sectors show consistent and strong evidence of a long-run relationship, the short-term causal relationships between the sector indices are considerably limited and, where they exist, especially unidirectional. The variance decomposition analysis confirms that even though a high percentage of error variance is accounted for by the innovations in the same index, innovations in the variance of returns in the Banking sector are able to explain, on average, 63% innovations in the variance of the Chemistry, Petrol and Plastic, 57% of the Basic Metal and 79% of the Holding and Investment sector returns. These results indicate that the Banking sector is the most influential sector in the ISE.

Suggested Citation

  • Gulin Vardar & Gokce Tunc & Berna Aydogan, 2012. "Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics among the Sectoral Stock Indices: Evidence from Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 347-357, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:347-357

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Theophano Patra & Sunil Poshakwale, 2008. "Long-run and short-run relationship between the main stock indexes: evidence from the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1401-1410.
    2. Bradley Ewing, 2002. "The transmission of shocks among S&P indexes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 285-290.
    3. Hakan Berument & Onur Ince, 2005. "Effect of S&P500's return on emerging markets: Turkish experience," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 59-64, January.
    4. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    5. Kent Hargis & Jianping Mei, 2006. "Is Country Diversification better than Industry Diversification?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(3), pages 319-340.
    6. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2011. "Comovements and Causality of Sector Price Indices: Evidence from the Egyptian Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 28127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:asi:aeafrj:2012:p:347-357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Qazi Muhammad Imran). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.